Showing posts with label NCAA Tournament First Round. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA Tournament First Round. Show all posts

Friday, March 20, 2009

NCAA First Round - #3 Villanova, Anderson Ascend Beyond #14 American Eagles, 80-67- After Trailing by 14 in 2nd Half (Part 2 - The Box Score)

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

#3 Villanova 80, #14 American 67 - NCAA First Round, The Wachovia Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Part 2 - Looking At The Box Score

You can also read Part 1 of the #3 Villanova/#14 American recap...

The senior duo of Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham were the offensive engines tonight. As great a player as Cunningham has become, tonight belonged to his good friend Anderson. Anderson had the finest game of his Villanova career on the biggest stage, and on an evening when his Wildcats teammates needed him the most. Anderson finished with 25 points on incredible 9-10 shooting. He made four of his five three-point attempts. Most importantly, he had a knack for coming up with a triple when it was most needed, and he was the only Wildcat to show a formidable offensive punch in the first half, which American won 41-31. And it wasn't just filling up the Wachovia Center nets. Anderson also grabbed eight rebounds, including three on the offensive end.

Looking at Cunningham - he also had an exemplary performance - 25 points (including 7-7 from the line), seven rebounds, three blocks, and two assists. Unbelievable night from the two seniors...

Only seven Wildcats saw action; Antonio Pena, who usually sees some minutes, did not play at all, probably because Villanova did not need size, but quickness, and also because nobody got into foul trouble. Cunningham, who had been plagued with it recently, finished with only one foul in 36 minutes...

Scottie Reynolds continues to struggle. The Eagles effectively neutralized the high-octane junior, limiting him to eight points on just 2-7 shooting, and dealing two assists against four turnovers. He did rebound and defend well (three rebounds and three steals), but for Villanova to advance deep into the tournament, they have to figure out a way to turn him loose. Granted, opposing defenses have zeroed in on him and so we can expect him to be well-defended, so we'll see what happens....

Reggie Redding had a respectable game, contributing on defense and the glass. He finished with four blocks, four rebounds, and two assists, committing only one turnover. On the offensive end, he made a rare three-pointer, his only field goal, while missing his other three shots; he was 1-2 from the line.

Likewise for the third regular senior, Shane Clark - it was a passable game. In 19 minutes, Clark had three rebounds, three assists, and no turnovers - although he had only two points, both coming at the line; he missed both field goal attempts. His minutes were limited by the fact that he's a defender, and Villanova trailed for most of the game (another reason why Pena didn't get in at all). The Coreys got more minutes as a result...

Off the Bench

Corey Fisher was the third Wildcat, along with the senior duo, who had a unequivocally good performance. Fisher scored 11 points (mostly at the line, where he was 9-10), four rebounds, four assists, and three steals. The downside was that he committed three turnovers and was 1-5 from the floor in 27 minutes...

Corey Stokes had a respectable game, coming off the bench for just 16 minutes. Stokes scored five points on 2-6 shooting (1-5 from beyond the arc), three rebounds, and a single assist, turnover, steal, block, and personal foul ("1"s spread along his box score line.

Looking at the Wildcats as a team, the team may have won the game at the line. The Wildcats made an incredible 26 of their 29 free throws (89.7%), and those were the reason why the final score was so deceptively lopsided. For a team that led the game by a significant margin for three-quarters of play, the Eagles took just five free throws for the entire game, a shocking number. And they only made three of them.

The Wildcats also shot well (28-50, 49%) and hit a decent number of threes (6-18, 33%). They crushed the smaller Eagles on the glass, 32-20, and blocked eight shots to American's one. What was not impressive were the 16 turnovers. In contrast, American had more assists (16), than turnovers (12).

Enormous kudos must be extended to the American Eagles, who demonstrated that they should not have been taken lightly. They had the additional disadvantage of playing on Villanova's quasi-home court, and they turned in a fantastic performance.

It had been anticipated that American's Big Three would be the most significant threat to Villanova's advancement, and that turned out to be accurate. Garrison Carr had an outstanding evening, one of the best performances that any of Villanova's 21st-century NCAA opponents has had. The diminutive Carr scored 22 points on 8-18 shooting, including 6-14 from beyond the arc, in 37 minutes.

Derrick Mercer played all 40 minutes, scoring 17 points on 8-16 shooting, while adding four assists and three steals. Brian Gilmore played 36 minutes, had 16 points on 7-15 shooting, although he was held to 2-9 from beyond the arc. (Commenter Seamus insightfully noted in his comment to Part 1, that one of Gilmore's misses early in the second half, and Dante Cunningham's layup on the ensuing possession, helped to keep the game within reach.) Gilmore added four rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals.

American coach Jeff Jones used nine players, but the Big Three played the most minutes; fellow starters Jordan Nichols (the Maryland high school opponent of Anderson, Cunningham and Reynolds) and Frank Borden played 27 and 26 minutes respectively, but did not have a large impact. Their sixth man, sophomore guard Joe Hendra, was ineffective, playing 16 minutes, scoring no points while missing four shots (including three triples). Three other Eagles saw action off the bench, but the Eagles bench combined for a grand total of two points, while the Coreys added 16 points.

Check back through the weekend, as I'll be adding #6 UCLA materials for Villanova's second-round game, set for tip-off early Saturday afternoon... and take a look at the Various Viewpoints on the right sidebar...

Go Wildcats!


Thursday, March 19, 2009

NCAA First Round - #3 Villanova, Anderson Ascend Beyond #14 American Eagles, 80-67- After Trailing by 14 in 2nd Half (Part 1)

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

#3 Villanova avoided a stunning upset by a gallant #14 American squad on Thursday, overcoming a 14-point second-half deficit to cruise down the stretch for an 80-67 victory, that was far more harrowing for a Villanova fan, than the score would indicate. Dwayne Anderson scored a career-high 25 points, matched by Dante Cunningham's 25, to power the Wildcats into the second round.

Keep checking back, as I will update this article throughout the evening....

NCAA Tournament - First Round - The Wachovia Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

#3 Villanova 80, #14 American 67

Overall Impressions

When the future generations of Villanova Wildcats fans look at this score, "back in '09", it will likely be viewed as an afterthought. A 13-point victory over a Patriot League team in the first round - in a #3/#14 game - at home. Utterly inconsequential. They would likely be far more interested in the subsequent games, such as the first NCAA tournament game against UCLA since the 1971 national title game, or any additional rounds the Wildcats might have reached.

However I would be hard pressed to name another 13-point victory, in which it appeared - deep into the second half, no less - that the game might be alarmingly out of reach. The Wildcats trailed by 14 points, one minute into the second half. While that was the literal peak of the American lead, the Eagles were not simply leading, but dominating play through the "third quarter", so to speak, in NBA terms.

American still led Villanova, 55-47, at the 11:21 mark. Since play had resumed, the American lead had never dipped below six. The Eagles had all of the momentum. Their lead, which was 10 at halftime, had fluctuated from a high of 14, to a low of six, over the first nine minutes of the second half.


It is very difficult to describe the level of despair, that was throbbing through the Villanova community, during the first three-quarters of this innocuous-in-the-record-books 13-point victory. I was already sketching out the unpleasant parallels between the 1995 triple-overtime disaster to Old Dominion in the first round, and wondering what the consequences would be for the program with a loss.

And for much of the second half, the Wildcats were in serious, serious trouble, of being handed a first-round exit in Philadelphia. Of course, I had hopes that Villanova would rally and eke out a victory, but I also considered this very realistic scenario: AU might suddenly turn on the jets and blow the Wildcats all the way back to the Main Line, dishing them a double-digit defeat on their quasi-home floor in one of the most stunning upsets in modern NCAA tournament history.

That having been said, the scoreboard showed that the Wildcats did in fact defeat the Eagles tonight - and that they did so by a solid 13-point margin. The Wildcats atoned for their first 29 minutes of dreadful play, by suddenly reviving in the last 11 minutes and flattening AU.

American won the first 29 minutes, 55-47. The Wildcats won the last 11 minutes, 33-12.

In fact, they won the final 11 minutes so decisively, that there was even garbage time to be had. (And Jay Wright really should have put Jason Colenda and Frank Tchuisi into the game at garbage time. American coach Jeff Jones refused to surrender and kept fouling, and there were ample stoppages in which they could have gotten on to the floor. Antonio Pena, a member of the regular rotation, didn't even get into the game at all.)


So what fueled this victory?

The Eagles had shredded Villanova's defense in the first half, ripping off 41 points to Villanova's 34. American's dominance reached its apex when Brian Gilmore hit a finger-roll layup with 11:21 to play, pushing its lead back to 55-47, after the teams had emerged from the under-12 CBS timeout. So at that point, AU was also winning the second half, 14-13. They were having no trouble whatsoever scoring. The Eagles were scoring at will.

But over the ensuing six-and-a-half minutes, Villanova scored 15 unanswered points, transforming the game from a staggering upset to a routine #3/#14 victory. I remembered thinking that American had seemed stuck on 55 for a long time. The Wildcats clamped down on them and shut them out until the 4:30 mark, when Garrison Carr's jump shot cut 'Nova's lead to 62-57. In other words, the Wildcats held the Eagles without a point for nearly seven minutes. Now, it's not unheard of for a team to have long droughts; conversely, for a team that plays defense like Villanova, it's not unheard of to impose those droughts on opponents.

However, what was unusual, was the fact that American went from scoring at will, to not scoring at all, for a long
time. So long, in fact, that the Eagles not only fell off cruise control, they were taken out of the game completely. Carr's shot got the Eagles within five of the Wildcats, but they never drew any closer.

Carr drove for a layup, to pull the Eagles once more within five, at 66-61 - with 3:10 to play. But the Eagles didn't score any more points until the final minute. After that layup, Villanova had crushed any hope of a rally, by rattling off an 8-0 run, putting the game far out of reach. The Wildcats led 74-61 with 58 seconds left, before the Eagles managed to score again (a layup by Jordan Nichols - the Maryland high school opponent of Reynolds, Anderson, and Cunningham - with 49 seconds to go). This is why I am perplexed as to why the bench players couldn't get into a game that the Wildcats led by 11 points in the final minute.

Keep checking back for more updates... There will be (at minimum) a second post on the American game, later on Friday, and eventually, some material on the second-round game with UCLA.

Go Wildcats!

Various Viewpoints - Other Previews, Including VUHoops Guest Contributor Ed '77's "American Graffitti"

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

I'll have another post on the upcoming contest with #14 American, so check back... in the meantime, here's a roundup of what the other Villanova blogs have been saying - and they have a lot of good stuff, in this edition of Various Viewpoints...

Rounding up some of the other Villanova blog previews, I'd like to particularly recommend
American Graffiti, published by a guest VUHoops.com contributor, Ed '77. He meticulously breaks down the potential each individual player's matchup versus the opponent's counterpart, and also runs down a long series of categories (common opponents, intangibles, etc.)

Other good stuff:
Check back here for my final thoughts heading into the first round...

Go Wildcats!

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round - "Still Preoccupied with 1995" - Where Would An AU Upset Rank In Villanova's NCAA Tournament History?

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

It's time to consider the doomsday scenario- where would an upset by American rank in the history of Villanova in the NCAA tournament?

If you're looking for the Villanova/American preview, you can read Part 1 and Part 2 and Part 3, and also get the view from an American University blog...

Since the modern incarnation of the 64-team tournament in 1985 - the same year in which Villanova so memorably won the tournament as a #8 seed - the track record for #14 seeds facing #3 seeds is better than one what might think. There have been 80 first-round games between those seeds, and the #14 seed has won 11 times (a little less than 14%). But perhaps the more significant statistic is that it's only happened twice (in 36 opportunities) since 2000, according to Bleacher Report...Why is that?

I speculate that one reason for the increasing futility for the #14 seeds, is the "pod" system which the NCAA installed in 2002. This permits more high-seeded teams (such as Villanova this year) to play close to home (or in the case of this year's Villanova Wildcats, at their quasi-home venue), and thus decreases the possibility of an upset...

"Still Preoccupied with 1995..."

While we're on the subject of #3/#14 upsets, we're going to have to discuss 1995 - one of the eleven aforementioned upsets.

In the worst first-round fiasco in school history, the red-hot Kerry Kittles/Jason Lawson/Alvin Williams/Eric Eberz/Jonathan Haynes team - the only Wildcats squad, before or since, to win the Big East tournament - fell in triple-overtime to #14 Old Dominion, in Albany, NY. ODU was led by Petey Sessoms, a name which is indelibly etched in the mind of any Villanova fan who observed what happened.

The one positive aspect of the disaster (at least in retrospect) is the fact that - we have to acknowledge this - it was a tremendously entertaining and exciting game, even being on the wrong end of it. Triple-overtime in the NCAA tournament. It's one of the games that I best remember of all the tournaments, regardless of the teams which participated.

Of course, Villanova will benefit from the pod system here - the 1995 game was played on a neutral court in Albany. So American's chance to pull off the upset is considerably lower than ODU's was.

However, if you look at it from the opposite perspective, an upset would be that much more impressive. If #14 American were to vanquish #3 Villanova, on its
de facto home court in Philadelphia, there's a pretty good chance that it would be the most significant upset of the entire tournament during the first round. No #16 seed has ever won a game (although a surprisingly large number have come close to doing so), and only four #15 seeds have done so (likewise).

One reason why the 1995 fiasco is so well-remembered, is the fact that Villanova was the trendy team - after the Big East tournament championship - to select to reach the Final Four (and in some of the more optimistic scenarios, win the national championship). This view was widely shared not just by Wildcat partisans, but many of the national analysts. So when that team fell in the first round, it sent shock waves throughout March Madness, nationally.

Keep checking back for more posts on Villanova/American as Thursday progresses, and for complete analysis and recaps...

Go Wildcats! Ground the Eagles!

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round Preview - Part 3 - Breaking Down the American Eagles Rotation

To the Wildcat faithful-

In Part 3, Breaking Down the American Eagles, I'll analyze coach Jeff Jones's rotation and discuss what the Villanova Wildcats might (or might not) encounter on Thursday night at the Wachovia Center... You can also read Part 1 and Part 2 and get the view from an American University blog...

The team is about as experienced, as one can get in 21st-century college basketball - they start five seniors. Moreover, this is their second consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament. As a #15 seed, they gave #2 Tennessee a challenging game in the first round in 2008 (in spite of the 15-point final margin, it was closer than that). Of particular interest, is the fact that all half-dozen seniors on the roster saw significant playing time all of last season, as well. Three of the five starters are still in DC.

Unsurprisingly, since they returned all but two starters from last season, they were the consensus preseason choice to repeat as Patriot League champions, which they did... Jeff Jones was named Patriot League Coach of the Year.

American relies primarily on scoring from three seniors: Garrison Carr, Brian Gilmore, and Derrick Mercer. There are three other seniors in the rotation: Jordan Nichols (an opponent of Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham, and Dwayne Anderson, while attending DeMatha High School in Maryland), Frank Borden, and Bryce Simon. There are a couple of underclassmen in the rotation; the most notable being Nick Hendra, a sophomore guard who comes off the bench.

In facing the Eagles, the Wildcats - senior-laden as they are - are meeting a rare team, whose rotation is (albeit marginally) more experienced than themselves. Of the Wildcats' eight-man rotation, both Coreys are freshmen, and Antonio Pena had a redshirt year. Reynolds and Reggie Redding are juniors. (Of course, this is the NCAA tournament, and every player on the team has been to the NCAA tournament every year he has been a Wildcat.)

It will likely be a matchup of speed and quickness over size. American mirrors Villanova in this respect, also. None of the six Eagles who play the bulk of the minutes are over 6-8 - and Mercer and Carr, two of the three best players, are both under six feet.

The Wildcats, with their tall wing players (Redding, Stokes, and Anderson), will have a defensive advantage in this regard. Of course, American likes to play a zone defense anyhow, and will have to figure out an answer for Dante Cunningham in the middle. Collapsing upon him and forcing the Wildcats' perimeter shooters to beat them may be an effective strategy.


Mercer, the point guard, is the reigning Patriot League Player of the Year, and Carr, the shooting guard, was first-team All-Patriot. They would likely be defended by Reynolds and Redding, respectively. Gilmore, the forward, ranked eighth in the Patriot League in scoring and was ninth in rebounding, and was named to the second-team All-Patriot squad.

Those are the Big Three, the only Eagles to average 32 or more minutes a game and the ones upon whom Jay Wright and his staff will likely focus. The rest of the rotation plays significantly less. Nichols is fourth in minutes at 27; Hendra, the sophomore who comes off the bench, averages 21.6; Borden, the fifth starter, averages less than 20 minutes. There are a couple of other Eagles who are role players, whose playing time vacillates sharply depending on the game, but they would be unlikely to have a significant impact. Unlike the Wildcats, who have a clearly defined eight-man rotation, American's will vary by the game. There are six players who play the most, and so that's whom we'll discuss...

One of the players whom we won't likely see is hometown product Joe Hill, a freshman from Plymouth Meeting, Pa., who played at Fort Washington's Germantown Academy, the alma mater of Villanova great Alvin Williams; he's played in seven games this year. Unless the game is uncompetitive down the stretch, Hill won't likely get into the action.

From the perimeter, Carr will look to shoot the most often, and to a lesser extent, Gilmore. Mercer, Hendra, and Simon will also take a shot from there, but nowhere near as often. The team tends to rely on defense, as they held their Patriot League opponents to the fewest points and lowest shooting percentage of any team in the league, according to CBS Sports's American Eagles report: Strategy and Personnel....

Nichols is the important defender underneath, leading the Eagles with 34 blocks and second on the team in rebounding. One weakness is the foul line, as Nichols and Hendra in particular average just 51% and 58%, respectively; Mercer, the star point guard, shoots only 61%. Nichols makes up for it, though, with a remarkable 65.2% percentage from the floor.

Check back for further posts previewing the #3 Villanova/#14 American game on Thursday.

Go Wildcats!

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

American U. Blog Quotes Coach Jeff Jones on AU Strategy for Villanova in NCAA First Round; AU's Nichols on 3 Wildcats Who Are Former MD HS Opponents

To the Wildcat faithful-

The American University student paper, The Eagle, has a staff writer blogging his experiences following the Eagles. In today's edition, "We're Dancin' Again: Back in the NCAA Tournament", author Mike Unger has a substantive quote from American coach Jeff Jones, analyzing potential strategy and discussing the assignment to Philadelphia. Unger also interviewed one of American's starters (and leading shot blocker) Jordan Nichols. I was so impressed by this blog, that I've temporarily included it in the Various Viewpoints feed that you see over on the right sidebar...

Jones - the former star player and 1990s coach at Virginia - on facing Villanova in Philadelphia:
"It's certainly not ideal, but there's nothing we can do about it, so we're not going to spend a whole lot of time worrying about it. Bottom line, we've been in those situations before. I think we've got 11 road wins this season, so we're accustomed to being on the road. I think we certainly will have decent representation from American. My guess would be that the VCU crowd, if we can keep things close and make things interesting, the VCU crowd will jump on our bandwagon. That kind of happened a year ago down in Birmingham. If you looked around, Tennessee probably had more Volunteer Orange than any other color, but we were able to hang in there and have a shot, at least for a while all the other teams' fans got behind us. If we can hang in there, that might happen on Thursday night as well."
Jones on Villanova's strategy:
"Statistically, you look at the number of free throws they've shot. That shows they're an aggressive team. They're not going to settle just for jump shots. Dante Cunningham, their biggest player, can nail the 16- to 17-foot jump shot. Scottie Reynolds can put the ball on the floor, both the Coreys can put the ball on the floor. They really attack you and force you to guard. One of the keys for us will be fighting and moving our feet to stay in front of them."

"Their mentality is they're going to attack the rim. One of the things in talking to the people we did talk to, they describe Villanova as being every bit as physical as Pittsburgh, just not with those real big bodies."

Unger relayed a student question for Jones, on "how AU is going to go about trying to guard Cunningham and Reynolds, and whose job that will be:"
"It will be a collective effort, but certainly Derrick will get a good close and personal look at Reynolds, and Jordan Nichols will be the match-up for Dante Cunningham, but they aren't going to be able to do it by themselves. We're going to have to do a good job with help defense, trying to take away some of the driving lanes that Scottie Reynolds has."

"With Dante Cunningham, he's so good at using the ball screens, the pick and pop situations, shooting that mid-range shot, so we've got to handle those situations well. It's a collective effort. It's simplistic to think how you defend players like that is simply at the half-court defensively. I think how we play offensively, not allowing ourselves to take quick, bad shots, not allowing ourselves to turn the ball over and allowing them to get out in open court situations, all those things go hand in hand to put ourselves in the best position possible to make them work. I don't know that we're necessarily going to be able to stop those guys, they're really, really good. We want to make them work for everything they're going to get."
In the same post, Unger interviews Nichols, who faced none other than Wildcats Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham, and Dwayne Anderson, while playing for DeMatha High School in Maryland. He also discusses the importance of American staying out of foul trouble, and their reaction to being assigned to nearby Philadelphia... In Nichols's own words...

On Cunningham, Anderson, and Reynolds:
"Cunningham and Anderson I played against St. John's. Cunningham was maybe the best player in our conference. When I was a senior I played against Scottie Reynolds, and he dropped about 50 on us, at American actually. We still won, but he dropped 50 on us. All those players were great when I played against them - they're phenomenal players."

"Just like I've gotten better and changed as a player, I'm sure [Cunningham] is probably a much different player than he was in high school. They have him doing a whole lot with the ball in his hands, inside and out. I don't think what I learned in high school is going to help me out there right now, I'm going to need some help from my teammates to guard him, because he's a prolific player."
5:00
Nichols on foul trouble:

"Staying out of foul trouble is going to be very, very key for us, especially with the way they attack the rim and get to the free throw line a lot. A few quick fouls on a couple of our guys and that would really put us in a lot of trouble."

5:02
Nichols on heading to Philly:

"It was a mixed reaction. Some of the guys were dreaming of Miami. But Philadelphia, the more everyone thinks about it, I think we're getting really excited about it. We should have a good fan base out there, the trip won't take too much out of us. It's just like driving up to Lafayette or Lehigh, except we're playing in front of 22,000 instead of 2,200."

Here is the direct link to this fine American Eagles-focused blog - "Marching Through March" by Mike Unger.

Check back for more posts, further previewing Villanova's NCAA first-round opponent...

Go Wildcats!

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round Preview - Part 2 - Looking at American's Patriot League Schedule and Results

To the Wildcat faithful-

In Part 2 of the #3 Villanova/#14 American NCAA First Round Preview, I'll look at American's Patriot League schedule and results, and see what we can learn about the Eagles, and what it might tell us about Thursday...

Part 2 - American's Patriot League Schedule and Results

American finished with a 24-7 record overall, 13-1 in regular-season Patriot League play, and won three games in the conference tournament. According to Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com, American finished - as of March 9 - with a RPI of 77, which is outstanding for a Patriot League team. As a member of the Patriot League, AU finished with a SOS of 239, which gives an indication of the weakness of the conference - especially because the Eagles had an extremely rigorous nonconference schedule for a low-major conference team.

What does this information tell us?

Patriot League Schedule

American entered the Patriot League with a 8-5 record. The Eagles then won the Patriot League regular-season and tournament championships, which clearly established them as the premier team in the conference. American went 13-1 in the regular season before winning three games in the tournament, leaving them at 16-1.

American won the regular-season Patriot League by two games over Holy Cross, which finished 11-3. However, the Eagles did have a number of close calls, despite losing only a single game, @ Holy Cross. They won two games in overtime - against the two teams which (BTW) have the oldest intercollegiate football rivalry. One was Lehigh at home, but the other was really surprising - @ Lafayette, which finished in a last-place tie in the eight-team conference with a record of 4-10, 8-22 (306 RPI). And that was in the season finale.

Other close victories were @ Navy (one point) and @ Bucknell. Travelling to Jay Wright's alma mater - which finished in seventh place, along with the aforementioned Lafayette, the Bison finished 4-10, 7-23 (293), and the Eagles won by just two points. Less surprisingly, American beat Holy Cross and Navy at home, by five and six points respectively.

Patriot League Tournament

The Eagles did enjoy a huge advantage, in that the entire tournament was in Washington. After surviving @ Lafayette in overtime in the season finale, the top-seeded Eagles got to face them again, just four days later. And this time, American won 78-56.

The semifinals were another matter, especially in light of the fact that American had conquered Army easily in both regular-season games. First, American won
in Washington, allowing just 34 points in a 22-point victory. Then, @ West Point, the Eagles held the Black Knights to just 36 points in a 24 point victory. So it was extraordinarily surprising, that after scoring just 70 points - combined - in two previous games against American, the Black Knights nearly stunned American in the semifinals in DC, losing just 61-60.

American faced the runner-up, Holy Cross, in the final; they had split the series with the Crusaders, each team winning at home. And in DC, the pattern held true; however, the Eagles had no trouble claiming the NCAA bid, conquering the Crusaders 73-57 (they had won by six at home in the regular season.)

Part 3 will be coming up soon...

Go Wildcats!

Monday, March 16, 2009

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round Preview - Part 1 - Looking at American's Nonconference Schedule and Results

To the Wildcat faithful-

In Part 1 of the #3 Villanova/#14 American NCAA First Round Preview, I'll look at American's schedule and results, and see what we can learn about the Eagles, and what it might tell us about Thursday...

Part 1 - American's Nonconference Schedule and Results

American finished with a 24-7 record overall, 13-1 in regular season Patriot League play, and won three games in the conference tournament. According to Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com, American finished - as of March 9 - with a RPI of 77, which is outstanding for a Patriot League team. As a member of the Patriot League, AU finished with a SOS of 239, which gives an indication of the weakness of the conference - especially because the Eagles had an extremely rigorous nonconference schedule for a low-major conference team.

What does this information tell us?

Nonconference Schedule

They played a Beltway version of the Philadelphia Big Five, playing Howard, Georgetown, George Washington, and Maryland. They also faced UMBC, not far away in Maryland.

Most minor-conference teams need to spend nearly all of their nonconference schedule on the road for economic reasons (the visitors get a guaranteed cut of the gate in exchange for not requiring a return game), and AU was no exception. They had only four home games out of conference. And their nonconference schedule was very rugged, playing @ Oklahoma, @ Georgetown, and @ Maryland. So let's continue game-by-game...


AU opened the season at Oklahoma, and was easily steamrolled, losing 83-54 on November 14.
But the Eagles recovered from the thrashing, winning their next four games. They returned home to crush St. Francis (PA), then travelled across DC to defeat Howard, flew to Jacksonville and won there, and finally headed north to Stony Brook and won narrowly.

The 4-1 Eagles then started a tailspin, and the losses started to mount - they lost five of their next six. After falling @ Fairfield, they returned home to host Mt. St. Mary's and lost - their first home loss. Travelling across town to Georgetown, the Hoyas crushed them 73-49. Eleven days later, they headed to Foggy Bottom to face an unimposing George Washington, and the Colonials managed to beat them by 13 points.

Travelling to nearby Baltimore to face UMBC, American beat the Retrievers (a great nickname) to snap the skid, but were then defeated @ Maryland by 16 points. They were now 5-5, and wound up the nonconference schedule by hosting two Ivy League teams, Brown and Columbia. By winning both, the Eagles finished 7-5 in nonconference play.

So what does this tell us? (RPIs are in parentheses)

AU played a tough schedule; in addition to @ Oklahoma (5), they lost@ crosstown rivals Maryland (67), Georgetown (49) and George Washington (201), all of whom are members of conferences far more highly rated than the Patriot League. Granted, GW finished 4-12 in the Atlantic 10 and 10-18 overall. They also lost @ Fairfield (96) and won @ Manhattan (163); both were middle-of-the-pack MAAC teams.
Other road wins were at Howard (329), Jacksonville (146), Stony Brook (197) and UMBC (165).

Some of the other victories, granted, are not that impressive; Brown (304) was the worst team in the Ivy, Columbia (288) was average, and St. Francis (PA) (326) went 6-23. Those wins were all at home. They also lost at home to Mt. St. Mary's (115).

Patriot League Schedule

American won the Patriot League regular-season and tournament championships, which clearly established them as the premier team in the conference. American went 13-1 in the regular season before winning three games in the tournament, leaving them at 16-1. I'll look at that in Part 2...

Go Wildcats!

Sunday, March 15, 2009

#3 Villanova Faces #14 American in NCAA First Round in Philadelphia on Thursday!!!

To the Wildcat faithful-

The headline says it all...


Villanova/American Rivalry History

As the teams are separated by only about 140 miles, most of it highway, it is not surprising that they have met eight times. Villanova has swept all of them, and the last game was in December 1993.

The first meeting was on February 20, 1932, at American's home court. The Wildcats won by the margin of 25-19. It took another 32 years before they would play once more, at what is now Jake Nevin Field House, on January 30, 1964. This time it wasn't as close, as Villanova won 84-49. The Wildcats returned the favor during the following season, on December 10, 1964, and won 65-48.

Another decade passed, and the teams opted to play a home-and-home series, during the 1975-76 and 1976-77 seasons. The Eagles made their first trip to the Palestra, where the Wildcats triumphed, 68-55, on December 5, 1975. Returning to AU, Villanova won 69-60 on December 6, 1976.

Fifteen years elapsed before the next meeting. Judging from the dates, it appears that a "two-for-one" home-and-home series was arranged, which is not unusual, in circumstances when a power conference team schedules a non-power conference team. The non-power conference team lacks the leverage to negotiate a true home-and-home, so they offer to go twice in return for one return trip.

So the Eagles flew into the Pavilion for the first time on December 14, 1991, to face Rollie Massimino's final Wildcats team - and Villanova won 78-64. When Steve Lappas, a former Villanova assistant, took over the team the following season - he made his debut as a head coach at nowhere other than AU's Bender Arena (a very good venue, if you've never had occasion to see it) on December 5, 1992. This was the worst team Villanova has had in the Big East era (before or since), as it ultimately went 8-19. They did, however, have enough to get past the host Eagles, 86-74, to start Lappas off at 1-0 as the head coach at Villanova. After the trip back from DC, though, things didn't go well the rest of the season, as the team won only seven more games, making neither the NCAA nor the NIT, for the first time in 13 years.

American completed the two-for-one agreement by returning to the Pavilion on December 1, 1993, where they were crushed, 94-62, by the Wildcats, who would eventually win the NIT that season. The teams haven't met since then.

Some things have changed, of course. At the time of the two-for-one series in the early 1990s, AU was a member of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA), a good mid-major conference with a knack for pulling off big upsets in the NCAA tournament (Richmond, a member at the time, and most recently George Mason's Cinderella Final Four run). Since then, AU has moved down to the Patriot League, a conference of fine academic institutions that is a low-major conference.

Of course, there will be a lot more to come, so check back later - but in the meantime....


Go Wildcats!

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Villanova in the NCAA Tournament - First Round - PART II - Lobos In Sheep's Clothing

To the Wildcat faithful-

Here's Part II...

In the second half, Villanova made only three baskets on 23 shots (13%) and missed all 10 three-pointers it attempted, and lost the half 36-21, committing a dozen turnovers. The Lobos fortunately only went 4-16 from beyond the arc, or else it would have been considerably more terrifying down the stretch.

Villanova still had the game comfortably in hand as late as the under-eight TV timeout, cruising with a 19-point, 42-23 advantage with 7:59 to go. Time to start preparing for Florida, maybe give the bench players a little more time, get Lowry out of the game and rested.

Then the wolves began to circle, and the sheep disguises disappeared. In just over four minutes, the Lobos bayed at the moon, rallying their pack for one of the most stunning comebacks I've ever seen, albeit one which was ultimately fruitless. In the next 3:09, New Mexico went on a 13-2 run, pulling to within 44-36 on Alfred Neale's three, bringing Jay Wright to call for a halt to the proceedings (which frankly was long overdue).

The Wildcats appeared to have stopped the comeback cold at 1:23, when Lowry made a pair of free throws to push the lead back to 52-42. But 'Nova then began crumbling at the foul line. It wasn't over, and the Lobos actually got the deficit down to just five in the final minute of play.

New Mexico was kept alive by the fact that Mike Nardi, Curtis Sumpter, and Allan Ray combined to miss FIVE consecutive free throws in the final minute, before Ray made his second to boost the lead to 53-47 with 26 seconds left, after But everyone was sweating. In Jake Nevin, where I watched the game, it was a silent as a tomb, other than low groans when each missed free throw clanged off the rim. Nobody, least of all the Wildcats, relaxed until Nardi iced it by making two with 16 seconds left to push it to 55-47, the final score.

It was official: Villanova Victory. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief that the Wildcats had been spared the embarrassment of coughing up a 23-point second-half lead.

Let's look at the numbers:

Team as a Whole

The Wildcats' key to victory, aside from allowing only 11 points in the first half, was clobbering the Lobos on the boards, grabbing every loose ball for a 51-37 advantage. However, this was reduced by shooting a miserable 28% both from the floor and beyond the arc, as well as committing 20 turnovers. Since all the missed free throws came down the stretch, the numbers were surprisingly good (17-24, 71%).

The Wildcats also were outstanding at the defensive end, hounding the Lobos into 29.8% shooting, including 17% from beyond the arc (4-25) and 17 turnovers. It was the first time New Mexico's potent offense had been held below 30% in five seasons, since March 9, 2000 at BYU.

Starters

Sheridan: Described above.

Sumpter/Ray: As noted above, both had horrible days. Sumpter mitigated his a little bit by grabbed a team-high dozen rebounds.

Foye/Nardi: Both stepped up and had good statistical performances, combining for four steals, six assists and a blocked shot.

Bench

Kyle Lowry: Despite being hobbled by a stomach virus, he came off the bench for 20 minutes. Lowry had eight points, five rebounds, three steals and an assist. Had he not been available, 'Nova might easily have lost.

Jason Fraser: The Lobos were small and so Fraser wasn't needed as much, playing only 14 minutes (two points, four boards).

Marcus Austin: The Big Dog played against the Lobos for three minutes, scoring one basket and collecting one rebound.

Breaking Down the Lobos

Only two of McKay's seven-man rotation reached double figures: Granger and point guard Mark Walters.

Better than Advertised: Walters. He had 14 points, six boards, two assists and a steal, while four fouls limited him to 31 minutes.

Worse than Advertised: sharpshooter Troy DeVries, the best shooter in the Mountain West Conference. DeVries missed all seven three-point attempts, finishing with just two points and committing three turnovers.

Some other notes:

Just noticed that the Mountain West logo has purple trim, which is appropriate given the "purple mountain majesty' immortalized in the classic song "America the Beautiful." Villanova doesn't face Mountain West teams all that often: it hadn't faced a school which is now a member of the conference since 1990. The only times 'Nova had faced its members, respectively, prior to Friday:

Air Force: Never Brigham Young: 1951, 1970, 1984 Colorado State: 1965 UNLV: 1985 Utah: 1951, 1963 San Diego State: 1982, 1989, 1990 Wyoming: 1955, 1968

Some positives to take away:

It was Villanova's lowest point output in a NCAA victory, since defeating Princeton, 50-48, in the first round of the 1991 tournament. (It should be noted that Princeton very well could have won that game, running a brilliant set play to draw a foul while attempting to inbound the ball. Trailing and having to inbound under its own basket at the end, the Princeton player ran along the end line, to inbound the ball. When the Wildcat guarding him raced to keep up, without looking where he was going, he utterly bulldozed the Tiger whom coach Pete Carrill had cleverly planted there, explicitly to take a charge. But the official blew the call and failed to whistle the foul, dooming the Tigers to defeat.)

It was Villanova's first NCAA victory since 1997, when Tim Thomas, Alvin Williams, and Jason Lawson led #4 Villanova to a 101-91 victory over odious #13 Long Island, 101-91, in Winston-Salem, N.C.

The 47 Lobos points were the fewest surrendered by Villanova to a NCAA opponent, since yielding just 43 to Maryland in the Sweet 16 in 1985, winning 46-43. (In the shot clock era, which began the following year, the previous low had been the 48 yielded to Princeton.)

Bottom line - a win's a win. All that matters is that the tournament field has now been reduced to 32 teams. 32 teams still have a chance, however slim, for immortal glory with a national championship, and Villanova is still one of them.

My own personal perspective

I watched the game with approximately 100 people in Jake Nevin Field House on the big screen, in front of the stage. Phil Andrews from WPVI (6-ABC) was also there, with a cameraman, and "Action News" ran a couple of Andrews' interviews with students on its 6 PM newscast. The AV people did a great job in cranking up the sound (you haven't truly lived until you've heard Bill Raftery's baritone reverberate throughout Jake Nevin - "Send it in, big fella!")

Some reactions from fans: One woman sitting behind me, who requested not to be identified, described the game brightly and succinctly, with a smile: "You can quote me - Ugly with a Capital U." After the game was safely over, freshman Kelly Fromuth, from Landenburg in Chester County, described the suddenly-tight game as "stressful at the end. New Mexico did a good job." Fromuth's confidence for the next game was not diminished by the second-half collapse - when asked if 'Nova would beat Florida on Sunday, she replied: "Yes, we're going to win." Junior Matt DePont, an economics major from Annapolis, Md., spoke highly of the mood on campus this week. According to DePont, "the campus has been buzzing, people have been checking scores during classes. Lots of people are talking about skipping classes and going to Nashville." DePont is part of the new generation of Villanova fans: students from outside the Philadelphia metropolitan area, who didn't experience the mid-1990s NCAA setbacks and who approach this year's Wildcats without the cynicism of the older fans. Their optimism is refreshing.

"Five Good Minutes" with .... Phil Andrews of 6-ABC (WPVI)

Andrews is one of the best-known sports anchors in Philadelphia, at perennial ratings champion "Action News" on the ABC affiliate, WPVI. At the event to chat with students for coverage on the 6 PM broadcast, Andrews was gracious enough to have a brief, off-camera conversation with me at halftime, on Villanova, and the Philadelphia media. I had never met him before, but judging from today's conversation, he's very personable and a nice guy. His observations are not verbatim, as I didn't have a recorder with me, but here's the gist of what he said, paraphrased:

On Villanova's prospects:

"I think Villanova is a team that can reach the final [Four]. Wins over Kansas, Boston College."

On the first half of Villanova/New Mexico (remember, this is back when it appeared that victory was a foregone conclusion :)

Andrews was quite high on Villanova's prospects, remarking, "This game really helps them a lot. It gets rid of the jitters, especially for a team with players that have never been there before." "Villanova is getting EVERY rebound and EVERY loose ball. New Mexico, when they're shooting, all their other guys are just standing there."

On the alleged bias against Villanova in the Philadelphia media (I carefully phrased this question, accurately noting that I don't personally believe this is true, but many of our posters do.)

Andrews strongly disagreed with the assertion, that the Philadelphia media is biased against Villanova. "Everyone I know roots for ALL the teams to win, wants to see ALL of them do well." Nor did he give much credence to lingering animosity over the ruptured, since repaired, City Series from the Rollie era (1991). "Some of the older people may feel that way, but I don't think it's widespread. And that still doesn't mean they wouldn't want Villanova to succeed."

On the issue of the Eagles stealing Villanova's thunder this season, and why football dominates sports coverage in Philadelphia:

Three reasons, Andrews feels. First, that "Philadelphia is a blue-collar town and they identify with football." Second, "The Eagles are a 365-day a year story in Philadelphia. Outside of their seasons, nobody wants to talk about the other teams. When Villanova's not playing, nobody wants to talk about them. When the Phillies aren't playing, same thing. When the Sixers aren't playing, same thing." Finally, "The Eagles are universal. Philadelphia is a college basketball hotbed, but the fan base is divided six ways. The college teams don't have THAT strong an appeal, outside of their own students and alumni."

Historical Note: Vasco da Gama

Lundquist and Raftery told an amusing story about the size of the Wildcats' Nashville resort hotel, so large that maps have to be issued to help guests navigate its scope. Apparently, Jay Wright himself got lost in the hotel while trying to find a meeting room he had announced for a 9 AM team breakfast on Thursday morning. While roaming the hotel, he bumped into an equally befuddled Kyle Lowry - who had enough problems already with the stomach flu - and Lowry pleaded that he couldn't find the room, coach. Wright facetiously demanded in mock-anger, "I was wondering where YOU were." Raftery observed, reflecting his fine La Salle education: "Well, Vasco da Gama, he's not. But he's a good coach." I laughed at that, having never dreamed in a million years that the name of the great turn-of-the-16th-century Portuguese explorer of the Age of Discovery, would ever be mentioned during CBS' coverage of the NCAA tournament. (They must learn a lot about Explorers at La Salle :), or that Jay Wright would ever be compared to him.

Unfortunately, since some Americans probably thought da Gama is the latest hot coach at a mid-major being groomed for an ACC slot, or the latest top 6-9 prospect out of Oak Hill Academy- and since there probably wouldn't be a NCAA tournament if it weren't for Da Gama, a quick sketch to explain Raftery's witticism:

Admiral Dom Vasco da Gama was born in Portugal around 1469, and died in India in 1521. He is still remembered 500 years later, because he was the first European to sail from Europe via the open ocean, to the wealthy trade areas of India, instead of snaking through the Mediterranean and rivers to get there. India had peppers and spices, which were among the most valuable commodities in Europe at the time, due to the absence of refrigeration. Prior to the voyage, it wasn't understood that you could reach India from Europe by sailing around the bottom of Africa; it was assumed that the Indian Ocean wasn't connected to any others.

In 1497, five years after Columbus' voyage to America, Da Gama forced the revision of this belief, by sailing from Portugal around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa and onward to India. His legacy was to shift the focus of international trade routes and power from the Mediterranean states such as Venice, to the Atlantic states like Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, and England. Among the historical consequences which flowed from this, was the rise of the British Empire due to trade, including the founding of English colonies along the Atlantic seaboard. And thus - and of only slightly less consequence - the invention of basketball by Dr. James Naismith in Massachusetts and the creation of the NCAA tournament. And Raftery is correct - da Gama probably wouldn't have had too much trouble with the hotel in Nashville... (But could da Gama teach how to break a press? Or recruit effectively in the 21st century? :)

I'll break down Florida the rest of Saturday, and the preview will be posted as soon as possible...

Back to Part I...

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Villanova in the NCAA Tournament - First Round - The Ultimate Guide for Villanova/New Mexico (Part II)

In Part II, read about the coaching staff and players of the New Mexico Lobos, and the often bizarre, tragic events which have swirled around the team over the last two years, as well as their Mountain West season...

Where we left off, UNM had completed its nonconference slate with an impressive 13-2 record. I detailed in great length about UNM's home court, the Pit, and the advantages it confers. Clearly, New Mexico does not enjoy being away from it. Over the last two seasons, the Lobos endured a 27 game road losing streak, and if you are sufficiently harsh as to count neutral courts, it was 29 games. Those are not typos. Twenty-seven road losses in a row, twenty-nine road/neutral losses in a row. The victory at New Mexico State on Dec. 4 snapped the streaks at 27 and 29. When the Lobos won at Texas-Arlington, it was the first time that they had won consecutive games on the road since the 2000-01 season.

Nonetheless, there was some reason for optimism as conference play started. The two losses, at Oregon and a rare home loss to #5 Wake Forest, had both been close. At Oregon, the Lobos had been ahead at halftime and trailed by only two with 16 seconds left, before losing by four. Against Wake, a much better team, the Lobos were still in the game pretty late, down by only seven with 8:23 to play, before the Demon Deacons turned on the jets and won by 17.

Then the season began, and Danny Granger, the team's best player, injured his knee in the first half against Wyoming at the Pit in the MWC opener on Jan. 3. The Lobos held onto to win, but lost the next three without him - although since they were all on the road, they might very well have lost them whether he was there or not... (Granger had also had shoulder surgery over the summer.) The Lobos were pretty much resigned to a NIT with a 14-5 record, 1-3 in conference, and without their best player.

After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on Jan. 10, Granger returned and the Lobos suddenly became virtually unstoppable. Since Granger came back on Jan. 29, they've only lost one game, at Wyoming on Feb. 7. Overall, New Mexico is 26-3 with Granger. Another contributing factor may have been the shifting of guard Mark Walters to the point at the same time; it was an involuntary move, forced by the fact that Kris Collins, the junior starter, broke his foot on Jan. 26 and is out for the season. Despite their ineptitude on the road the last couple of seasons, they managed to go 3-4 on the road in the MWC, although all three wins were against the four teams in the bottom half.

And of course, all three of the conference tournament victories were on a neutral court in Denver. It was New Mexico's first MWC title, and its first tournament championship since it won the Western Athletic Conference tournament in 1996, under coach Dave Bliss. (The Mountain West was created as the result of a secession movement by some WAC schools.) So after failing to win 29 straight times on road-neutral floors, the Lobos managed to go 6-4 on them in the MWC this season, a strong step forward. They also managed to beat #15 Utah on one, one of the rare occasions when UNM has beaten someone good away from the Pit.

New Mexico actually illustrates pretty well the competing interests that the NCAA Selection Committee has to take into account when offering at-large bids and seeding. UNM was white-hot, arguably the hottest team in the country. It had only one loss since Jan. 24 while playing in a decent conference, and no losses since Feb. 7. UNM also had a good record in that conference (coming in second at 10-4) and had won two out of three from the top team in the conference, Utah. And it had 26 victories. All of those things add up to a good seed.

The Feb. 21 victory over Utah at the Pit, was the highlight of the season, as it ended a streak of 18 consecutive victories for the #13 Runnin' Utes. Although it did set the UNM athletic department back a few bucks. According to the New Mexico's sports information department, which expressed this story quite eloquently:

"Several enthusiastic Lobo fans painted their faces and bodies red in an effort to show support. Some of those same fans rushed the court after the game to celebrate with their Lobo heroes. The combination of body art and sweat resulted in permanent stains to the white uniforms. Still waiting on the new togs, New Mexico had to wear its red road uniforms in the final home game against Colorado State. UNM had new uniforms for the MWC Tournament."

Of course, the SC also loves strength of schedule. And this year, it was a double whammy, because the "new RPI" added the reward for road victories (which the Lobos are notorious for not having) and increased the penalty for home losses (which didn't hurt them as much, because their only home loss all year was to Wake). So despite 25 Division I victories - including nine consecutive to end the season - the horrible strength of schedule was only enough to get them a 12 seed, and had they not taken the automatic bid, very possibly out of the tournament entirely.

So how did coach Ritchie McKay pull off this feat? He's an interesting case...

He's only 39, and UNM is already his fourth Division I head coaching job. (I don't know if that's a record for someone under 40 but it has to be pretty close). McKay actually grew up with New Mexico roots and was a huge New Mexico fan, because his father had played for the Lobos in the early 1960s. (Although, unfortunately, his late father never got the chance to see his son become head coach in Albuquerque.) He attended his first collegiate game in 1978, an NCAA tournament game between the Lobos and Cal State-Fullerton.

After graduating from Seattle Pacific in 1987, where he was a star player, McKay began an odyssey as an assistant which took him all over the map during the next eight years:

the University of Washington; Queens College in North Carolina; back to his alma mater of Seattle Pacific; Bradley (ironically, the school from which Granger would transfer a decade later); and then back to Washington.

McKay would then take three successive head coaching jobs and spend exactly two years at each one (the streak is broken now because this is his third year at New Mexico).

Prior to the 1996-97 season, McKay was hired at Portland State (no, not the team that Villanova had pulverized in the NCAA tournament's first round the previous season, in a #3-#14 game, 92-58. That was Portland. But worth mentioning: Howard Brown, a freshman playing during garbage time, had a dunk off a lob pass, probably from fellow freshman John Celestand, in which he appeared to have his feet standing on the rim before he brought it home.) McKay spent three years there, although he only officially coached two. Portland State had dropped basketball 15 years earlier and he spent his first year there laying the groundwork for reviving it. He had some success: while his first team went 9-17, his second improved to 15-12, and he parlayed that into the position at Colorado State.

After two successful years there, including a NIT, McKay parlayed that into a Pac-10 slot at Oregon State, one of the doormats of the conference. Here is where the story gets interesting. McKay apparently did a fantastic job rebuilding the program, as he was really popular in Corvallis. Although he didn't have success, as measured in wins and losses. He arrived in 2000-01, went 10-20 (4-14) and finished tied for 9th in a 10-team league. No big deal, he was coaching OSU with his predecessor's players. In 2002, though, he went 12-17 (4-14 again), finishing 9th again.

Generally a coach with back-to-back 4-14 seasons - even if they are really the fault of his predecessor - would not be able to use that record as a springboard to move UP the coaching pyramid, but McKay somehow managed to do it. New Mexico even paid Oregon State $225,000 to buy out his contract. Although Oregon State is in the Pac-10, it's at the bottom of the Pac-10 (notwithstanding their decent season this year). Given the choice, I'd much prefer the top of the Mountain West in New Mexico, in a sold-out building every night, with much better weather, at your father's alma mater and your childhood team: well, that's moving up in the world. (And probably more money.) Clearly, he was well liked in Corvallis: Oregon State's AD publicly stated how sorry he was to see McKay depart and about the solid foundation he had laid at OSU. Which has likely been borne out, because the players McKay was recruiting are probably the ones that OSU is winning with today.

Of course, New Mexico may have been starting to get desperate. Fran Fraschilla, whom we all remember from his messy exit from St. John's, had just gotten the ax after three mediocre years, all resulting in NIT bids. McKay was actually New Mexico's FIFTH choice for the helm. The hot name at the time for New Mexico was Rob Evans of Arizona State, who had played at New Mexico State, but the deal couldn't be worked out.

At any rate, the complicated courtship has worked out for both sides. Fraschilla left an absolute disaster in his wake: during his three years, no fewer than nine scholarship players departed, some according to the Daily Lobo (great name for a newspaper, by the way :) "accusing Fraschilla of mistreating them." Not surprisingly, McKay's first year ('02-03) was pretty rough, as the team went just 10-18 - the Lobos' worst record in 23 years and one in which they failed to win a single road game. But last year, they improved to 14-14, and this year, the Lobos exploded, going 26-6 (a 16 win improvement in two seasons).

Clearly the key to this sudden turnaround, was the recruitment (or larceny, depending on one's perspective) of Granger from Bradley in January 2003. The credit for the coup apparently rests with current Lobos assistant Duane Broussard, who had been the Bradley assistant who had originally recruited Granger to Peoria. (VU connection: Broussard was at Bradley, during the 1995-96 season, when the notorious fight took place between Wildcat Jason Lawson and a Bradley player.) Granger's transfer came as a result of, as is so often the case, a coaching change: Jim Les took over at Bradley after the previous coach, Jim Molinari, was fired, and Broussard, with whom Granger is close, departed along with him. Not coincidentally, one of McKay's odyssey stops had been going to Italy in 1997 under Molinari, as an assistant when Molinari was the U.S. head coach for the World University Games. And McKay had also been an assistant at Bradley himself.

Granger was a junior and would have only three semesters of eligibility if he transferred. However, Bradley didn't back down quietly. Which isn't surprising, because when he left, he was their best player, averaging over 19 points, 8 boards, and 1.5 blocks a game, leading the Braves in all those categories. The school accused New Mexico of tampering with Granger in violation of NCAA regulations; it's impermissible for a school to contact another school's player without written permission. Ultimately, Bradley refused to release Granger from his scholarship commitment, thus forcing Granger to pay his own way at UNM for two semesters. (Don't shed any tears for him; he'll be doing OK in the NBA.)

McKay denied any wrongdoing, stating that "he would take any consequences" if they were in the wrong. As it turned out, both sides had valid points. In July 2003, the NCAA stepped in and ruled that the transfer was allowed, but found Broussard guilty of "secondary violations" regarding contacting a recruit. New Mexico had reported it in March, the NCAA issued a wrist-slap penalty, though: two days lost recruiting and no recruiting for Broussard for a month.

Granger has unquestionably been worth the wait and the NCAA brouhaha for the Lobos. He's only played at UNM for a year and a half, in which he missed three games, and he already has 18 double-doubles, scoring 20+ points 23 times. (He's only been one rebound short of six other double-doubles.) If he scores 21 points in this NCAA tournament, he'll have scored 1,000 points at New Mexico in just three semesters. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks, a true Renaissance man of the hardwood. As Dick Vitale is wont to say, he can do it all.

Within the MWC, he's second in scoring, steals, and blocks, third in rebounding, fourth in three-pointers. He carried the Lobos to the conference tournament crown, being named tourney MVP after upping his averages to 24 pts/11 rebounds/3 blocks/3.7 assists in the tournament.

Although- as we shall see- lack of success outside of the Pit, or Bradley's complaints about tampering over the Granger episode, are unquestionably the least of the problems that McKay has faced, since he came home to New Mexico in the spring of 2002. The first major problem involved an unfortunate fellow named Patrick Dennehy, whom McKay had inherited from Fraschilla. During an off-season workout after McKay arrived in Albuquerque, Dennehy walked out on practice and McKay booted him off the team. Dennehy opted to transfer to Baylor, and he sat out the 2002-03 season at Baylor, preparing to join the team.

In November 2002, senior team captain Senque Carey was temporarily paralyzed, after a freak spinal-cord injury resulting from his taking a charge, during McKay's second game as head coach, against Northwestern State at the Pit. Fortunately, he made a full recovery, but the injury ended his basketball career, and Carey is now an assistant at Portland State. Sean Phaler, now a Lobo freshman, was nearly killed in a car accident while being recruited.

But in June 2003, Dennehy vanished, and his SUV was found in Virginia Beach with the plates removed. His body was found weeks later outside Waco, Texas. (A Baylor teammate, Carlton Dotson, was charged with the murder; in October 2004, a Texas judge ruled that Dotson be sent to a mental hospital for treatment before he could stand trial. In February 2005, Dotson was returned to jail in Texas after being deemed competent to stand trial, and he could be tried as early as May, according to prosecutors.)

Then two months later, in August 2003, sophomore forward Billy Feeney, a transfer from Portland who had been expected to start for the team and had a long, bright future ahead of him at age 19 or so, tragically committed suicide. So in a two month span, two players connected to McKay were both dead, and the deaths were unrelated. Another player was almost killed and still another was almost paralyzed.

As if all this weren't enough, the "Architect of Lobo Basketball", long-time coach Bob King (for whom King Court at the Pit was named in 1992) died on Dec. 10, 2004 at the age of 81. King had arrived as the coach, when McKay's father was playing for the Lobos in 1962. King's success with the Lobos actually was the catalyst for the Pit's construction in 1966, as the previous building was too small to accommodate the burgeoning crowds. Prior to King's arrival, the Lobos had never qualified for a postseason tournament, and now they have 27 appearances, counting this year. The "BK" patches you'll see on the Lobos' jerseys on Friday are to commemorate King's passing.

Obviously, McKay has had a lot on his plate, as he strove to rebuild the program after Fraschilla's tenure, which would have been challenging enough even under normal conditions. But he's done an admirable job of it, especially under such trying circumstances.

McKay also lost some players he inherited, although since there are vague references to players who didn't see eye to eye with the new regime, I doubt they were missed. Two holdover sophomores transferred after his first year, leaving more holes. To help patch up the ship, McKay has relied heavily on transfers: in addition to Granger and and the late Feeney, senior Troy DeVries is a transfer from Portland State, one of McKay's old gigs. Also, Kris Collins, the junior starting point guard, and Alfred Neale, a senior, are junior-college transfers. (You won't see the injured Collins, as mentioned above.) Whether such quick-fixes (five transfers are quite a few for such a short tenure) are good for a program's stability over the long-term remains to be seen, but McKay seems to be doing fine so far.

This year, the Lobos have overachieved, clearly. Preseason expectations were not high for the team, which wasn't planning a NCAA trip this week. This was perfectly logical. New Mexico hadn't qualified for the NCAA tournament since 1999. The two previous seasons hadn't yielded any NITs, either. And all of the turmoil and tragedy didn't help matters. The Mountain West preseason poll tabbed the Lobos just fourth out of the eight teams, behind UNLV (which finished in a fourth place tie at 7-7, ironically), Utah, and Air Force. And fourth place in the MWC means NIT, at best. Especially, when you haven't won a road game in 27 tries, and nobody good will come to your house and play.

Breaking down the Lobos:

McKay's personnel, as chronicled above, are a crazy-quilt of minutes and scoring averages. None of the five starters average more than 30.8 minutes a game, and nobody on the team has fewer than 4.2. I would guess that this haphazardness is primarily due to the hideous chaos that has plagued the program, rather than the way McKay planned it. (Although some coaches like to use a lot of players, so it's possible it's just his style.) When half the players on the team are transfers, some guys are practicing without playing, and all sorts of odd combinations are probably tried out over the months. The abolition of the 5/8 rule dammed up some of McKay's losses, because he was able to add five players last year.

All five of the starters average over double figures in scoring, reflecting unselfish play and good teamwork. All five received at least Honorable Mention by the MWC, and three were named all-conference (one first-team, two third-team.) The way it seems to have evolved recently is that McKay will use a seven-man rotation and mix in the other six healthy players here and there. All the starters other than David Chiotti are legitimate three-point threats, with three of them over 40% and all over 38.5%.

#33 Danny Granger, 6-8, forward, senior, 19.0 ppg, 8.8rpg - Already discussed in detail. In addition to his other talents, an outstanding foul shooter for a forward, 75.8%. And he exploits this fact effectively by getting to the line a lot: he averages over 6 FTs a game. He will be a first-round NBA draft pick, and his stock can soar higher with a strong performance in the tournament. Two-time first-team All-MWC.

#21 Alfred Neale, 6-6, forward, senior, 10.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg - One of McKay's patches, Neale came up big in the MWC tournament, scoring 41 points in three games. He was an accomplished high jumper in junior college. So expect him to take the tip...

Also a dangerous three-point shooter, averaging 40.6%, and he takes a lot of them (he has 56 triples this year). Explosive and athletic crowd-pleasing dunker at the Pit, with a penchant for drawing charges.

#13 David Chiotti (say it KEY-OH-TI), 6-9, forward, junior, 10.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg - In an interesting quirk, was the back-to-back winner of the Lobos' Most Improved Player award, in each of his first two years in Albuquerque. Usually, that sort of award doesn't pull a Tom Hanks, and so Chiotti must either be really awesome by now or have been genuinely dreadful when he got there. Or some combination of the two. (Perhaps if he develops a three-point shot this offseason, he can go for the three-peat.) Injured his hip flexor in the same game that Granger got hurt in January. Went to the same San Jose, CA high school as Dennehy and Carey.

Described as a "tough post player who visibly got stronger in the offseason". Seems to be a decent frontcourter, as he was named third-team All-Mountain West this year. For a guy probably forced to guard bigger players at the "five", he does a great job at staying out of foul trouble, averaging just over two a game. He starts every game, but he averages only 27 minutes, which make his scoring and rebounding numbers more impressive. McKay played him more in the last two games of the MWC tourney, so we might see more of him.

#5 Mark Walters, 6-2, guard, junior, 10.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg - good rebounder for a point guard. Team has hummed since he moved to point. Was awesome in MWC tournament, with 18 assists and only three turnovers. Good clutch free-throw shooter (17-20 in final three minutes of MWC games). 74% FT shooter overall.

#2 Troy DeVries (rhymes with "a breeze", 6-4, guard, senior, 11.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg - The most accurate three-point shooter in New Mexico's history, he hits at a phenomenal 46.1% clip. He also is the most accurate three-point shooter in the MWC's short history. Don't leave him open. Also named third-team All-Mountain West.

Weakness: For a guard, especially one with an exceptional three-point shot, he is an atrocious free throw shooter, averaging just 53.2% this season. And the percentage has dropped every year he's been in college. (When he was at Portland State he was pretty good at it.)

Off the Bench:

#32 Tony Danridge, 6-5, guard/forward, freshman, 3.1 ppg, 1.0 rpg - He's the one bench player who consistently sees significant time, averaging 12.1 minutes. In the MWC tournament, he scored 18 points in 44 minutes off the bench.

#20 Ryan Wall, 6-0, guard, sophomore, 1.2 ppg, 0.6 rpg- Spare guard who will probably come in to give Walters a breather at the point, as his minutes climbed sharply after Collins broke his foot and ended his season. Offensive threat is nil: only scored 29 points this year and 12 were in a single game.

None of the other bench players are worth profiling in detail, as they won't play much unless someone gets hurt.

Overall Outlook

Villanova has to hope that Granger scores only 21 points or so and try to shut down everyone else. It will be a showdown between the juggernaut Lobo offense and the stingy Villanova defense. The Lobos are lethal shooters, both overall (50%) and from beyond the arc (40%), numbers good enough to get them into the national rankings in both categories.

Something to chew on if the game gets tight down the stretch: New Mexico has only had four games the entire year, which were decided by five points or less, and they split the four contests.

Fun facts on the Wildcats/Lobos:

Not surprisingly, given the teams' divergence in scheduling power, the teams did not face a single common opponent this year.

New Mexico hasn't played in Nashville since 1956.

New Mexico's official colors are Cherry and Silver. (Coincidentally, Temple's are Cherry and White.)

Villanova and New Mexico have never faced each other. However, surprisingly for a Southwest team, New Mexico's basketball tradition actually outdates Villanova's. The first UNM game was on Groundhog Day 1900, when the Lobos lost a 8-6 shootout to the Albuquerque Guards. However, New Mexico has not fielded a team continuously since then. Villanova began play in 1920-21, continuously. The Lobos have been continuously fielding a squad since 1921-22.

The game will be called by the outstanding CBS broadcast crew of Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery. It will tip approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first game in the Gaylord Entertainment Center in Nashville, Tennessee. That game will involve #4 Florida, tournament champions of the SEC, against #13 Ohio U., tournament champions of the MAC, and is scheduled to tip at 12:25 PM EST (11:25 AM in Nashville). If the Wildcats win, they would move on to face the winner of Florida/Ohio U. on Sunday.

Villanova in the NCAA Tournament - First Round - The Ultimate Guide To Villanova/New Mexico (Part I)

To the Wildcat faithful-

Wondering about the Lobos? Here is Part I of the Ultimate Guide to Villanova vs. New Mexico, in the first round of the NCAA tournament. In this part, we'll descend into the Pit, and explain the Lobos' pitiful nonconference schedule.

If you're like me, unless you've ever had reason to live in the Southwest, probably the only exposure you've had to the Lobos are some late-night Big Monday games on ESPN, seeing the screaming red-clad fans waving signs and watching the Lobos face Utah or Air Force or some other Mountain West opponent at the Pit. Well, here are the basics:

UNM is located in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and has an enrollment of 26,500; it actually predates New Mexican statehood by 23 years, as it was established by the Territorial Legislature in 1889 (New Mexico, along with Arizona, were the last two of the 48 continental United States to be granted that status, in 1912.)

Unquestionably, the Lobos' signature aspect as a program - the equivalent of Villanova's 1985 miracle title run - is Bob King Court at "The Pit", located 37 feet lower than street level. Although this game obviously - and fortunately - won't be played there, it's worth examining in some detail because it's impossible to adequately discuss UNM's program without it. UNM's home facility, is in fact one of the most remarkable venues in college basketball. Entirely independently of this game, if I ever had any reason to be in Albuquerque, I definitely would have wanted to stop in and take a look inside, even if there wasn't a game going on.

In June 1999, Sports Illustrated attempted to classify "The Top 20 Sporting Venues in the 20th Century", not just in America, but in the entire world. And the Pit not only qualified for the list, it was #13, ahead of such historically important sites as the Rose Bowl, St. Andrew's Golf Course in Scotland, and Notre Dame Stadium. Among college basketball sites, it rated second only to Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke. (I would take issue with why the Palestra wouldn't be included, or at least in the neighborhood on that list, but never mind.)

It is one of the most historically important venues in America, and probably in the West second only to Pauley Pavilion at UCLA. There are two chief reasons - one is its unique nature as a den of wolves for visitors - one of the toughest in America. The other is the fact that it has been a frequent NCAA tournament host, and can claim the single most dramatic moment in NCAA history (and second-greatest title upset, to Villanova in 1985 :)

namely, the Derek-Whittenburg-to-Lorenzo-Charles pass/dunk, that helped #6 seed NC State shock Houston, then-Akeem Olajuwon and Phi Slamma Jamma in 1983. It gave Jim Valvano, the author of the upset, a permanent place in NCAA lore, and the footage of him giddily wandering around the court in the aftermath is one of the greatest images in NCAA history.

Yep, back then, the Final Four was a sufficiently intimate affair that a city as small as Albuquerque, with a 18,000 seat building, could host it. (Ironically, the popularity engendered by the NC State and Villanova victories ultimately forced the NCAA, during the 1990s, to stipulate that only domes could host it in the future.) Of course, Albuquerque can still host earlier rounds, which it has done seven times, most recently in 2002, and it will be hosting again during this tournament (although of course the Lobos can't play there).

It is unquestionably one of the most difficult home courts for visiting teams in America - and it arguably is THE toughest. The numbers bear that out. New Mexico has an .802 winning percentage in the building during its 39 years of existence. This year, the Lobos went 18-1 there. That might not sound like a big deal; Villanova's winning percentage in the Pavilion is almost as high; entering the season it was .763. But Villanova has a strong home-court advantage as well, and the numbers are also a bit skewed because so many of the toughest opponents have been played in South Philly. And the Pit has been there for 39 years, almost twice as long for the Pavilion. (And until the 1990s, New Mexico had received only two NCAA bids in school history.)

Why is the Pit so tough?

Well, for one thing, it's incredibly loud. During the 1998-99 season, a St. Petersburg Times reporter attempted to determine conclusively which building in America was the loudest, and he deemed the Pit worthy of the ranking, recording a 118-decibel reading there for a game between the Lobos and Arizona. According to his research, it was higher than Cameron Indoor Stadium for Duke/North Carolina, higher than Allen Field House for Kansas/Iowa, higher than Assembly Hall for Indiana/Purdue (although I don't know if the guy visited the Palestra in Philadelphia during that tour).

The decibel levels is attributable, not just to the location 37 feet below street level, but also the Lobos' incredibly large and loyal following, one of the best fan bases in the country. UNM hasn't fallen out of the top 15 nationally in attendance since 1967, and in all but three of those years they were in the top 10. Attendance is over the 10 million mark (the 10 millionth fan was honored in 2002). They have averaged 15,755 fans per game over a 38-year span, 95% of capacity. Remember, that as we shall see later in this article, the vast majority of these games are not being scheduled against marquee teams like UCLA and North Carolina - to say the least. And they're still AVERAGING 15,000+ every night. Regardless of how good the Lobos are that year. In a small metropolitan area. (Albuquerque is booming - it has over 700,000 residents now, over 100,000 of whom have arrived since 1990 - but it doesn't have a huge suburban area surrounding it. It's not a big metropolitan area.)

What does all of this mean? Well, basically, that if you were an opposing coach you'd be insane to schedule the Lobos if you had to go there for a home-and-home series. Nobody wants to play them on that basis. And as a result, New Mexico suffers from perpetual schedule sclerosis, often logging very weak OOC schedules just to find opponents. Nor can it simply pack up and hit the road. Programs at this level want to play home-and-home, and UNM isn't going to simply agree to go on the road without a return game.

So every year, UNM's schedule is loaded with home cupcakes and lots of cholesterol. The only teams willing to go there, usually, are ones that need the guarantee money and are willing to take a thrashing to get it. (A "guarantee game", the generally accepted euphemism for "cupcake", is a game in which the little school agrees to waive a return game from the big school and usually agrees that the game be officiated by officials from the big school's own conference. In exchange for these concessions, the little school gets a wad of cash from the gate receipts, which it uses to fund its athletic program.)

One clear sign of this pattern: we all know that Villanova's cupcake opponents come generally from the East Coast, because of the ease of travel and lack of expense. Most are a short bus ride away, in New York, New Jersey, or New England. You'll notice that, in contrast, many of the teams UNM plays out-of-conference come from NOWHERE near Albuquerque. Traditionally, they play a rare home-and-home, out-of-conference series with New Mexico State, in the same season, every year, which is fortunate because that eats up another spot on the schedule. Basically, UNM has to go farther and farther away from the Southwest just to get someone to agree to fly in to accept their thrashing - probably programs that aren't aware (or indifferent) to the terrors of the Pit. (And it probably has to up the guarantee money to get them to agree to it, because of the increased cost of the trip.)

Usually, over the last 15 years, this killer home-court advantage - given that all of its Mountain West brethren have to come there every year whether they like it or not - is enough to get the Lobos into the NCAA mix, if not always a bid.

Let's look at the season as a whole, now. New Mexico completed its season with a 26-6 overall record, 10-4 in the eight-team Mountain West Conference. (I grow nostalgic thinking about the idea of playing in an eight-team conference where you play everyone twice and develop genuine rivalries and familiarity with the opponents... Ah, the good ol' days of the nine-team Big East...) Their final RPI rating was #67.

They finished second in the Mountain West regular season to Utah, which finished 13-1, the Utes' sole loss coming to the Lobos on Feb. 21 at the Pit, when the Runnin' Utes were ranked #13. Late Saturday night in the East, New Mexico defeated the Runnin' Utes in the tournament final to capture the Mountain West's automatic bid; all tournament games were played at a true neutral court in Denver. The game meant a lot more to the Lobos, who were not guaranteed a bid - whereas the Utes were a lock regardless of the conference tournament. Utah and New Mexico were the only two Mountain West teams to be under NCAA consideration and accordingly the only two to receive bids.

When I did my bubble analysis, I felt that New Mexico had assured of an at-large bid just by reaching the final, but in retrospect that probably wasn't correct. New Mexico, despite BEATING Utah in the final, only ended up with a 12 seed, on a par with the lowest at-large bids. And so it seems reasonable to think that if the Lobos had lost that game, they were certainly on the bubble (although they still might have gotten in, given the weak performances of many other bubble teams.)

The reason why UNM needed the MWC tournament run, was its typical exceptionally, exceptionally, exceptionally, weak out-of-conference schedule. The Lobos played only two other teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament: Utah (three times) and Wake Forest. How weak was the schedule? Jerry Palm rated it 227th in the nation on CollegeRPI.com; Villanova's, in contrast, was 9th. An analysis:

The Lobos opened their season by hosting the NABC Classic, a round-robin tournament with all four teams playing each other once, and with very weak opponents (about as weak as you can get, frankly). Not surprisingly, the Lobos won their own tournament. They opened with North Carolina A&T, whom they beat by 16. (NC A&T finished 6-24 and with a RPI of 312.) They leveled Santa Clara, an average West Coast Conference team, by 34 (Santa Clara ended up 14-16 and #132). And they got past woeful Duquesne, 82-74, in the final (the Atlantic 10 Dukes, who sported ultimately a 8-22 record and #259 rating) . Then they returned home to the Pit and flattened a non-Division I opponent, Western New Mexico, by 40. Four victories, but none, obviously, that would really help them.

The Lobos then embarked on the bulk of their nonconference schedule. They traveled to Oregon, a Pac-10 squad but one which had a dreadful season, and lost by four. The Ducks, who were in the Final Four earlier in the 21st century, quacked to only a 14-13 mark overall, 6-12 Pac-10, and #81 RPI this season. The Lobos ripped off six consecutive victories against middling competition, after that setback. They swept a four-day, home-and-home series with arch-rival New Mexico State, winning one game by 18, one by 19. Some of you may remember the early '90s, when New Mexico State was actually pretty good. Well, those days are over. NMSU had a 4-24 record and # 292 rating. The Lobos then devoured two more tissue-paper teams, Northern Colorado (4-21, #298) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (5-21, # 311).

At this point, bear in mind it is December 12 and they have already played ten games, and they're 9-1. However, no fewer than EIGHT of those games were against seven opponents are among the worst, worst, worst dregs that Division I basketball had to offer in America this season. The only "good" team they played, Oregon, beat them, and the Lobos massacred the only mediocre one, Santa Clara.

Having sufficiently tuned up, the Lobos then battled against some decent competition, Tennessee and #5 Wake Forest, both at the Pit. The Lobos soundly beat Tennessee by 19, on Dec. 19, and were in turned soundly beaten by Wake, 81-64, on Dec. 22.

After Christmas, the Lobos hosted another holiday tournament, this one styled the "Comcast Lobo Invitational". This one was not round-robin, there were just two games per team. Mississippi Valley State was scheduled to face the hosts; at 13-15, 249, this was actually one of the Lobos' more formidable OOC opponents, as incredible as that sounds. The Lobos flattened Jerry Rice's alma mater, 101-68. The Lobos then sacked Troy (11-18, 219) to win their own tournament yet again. (The Lobos missed out on Pepperdine, the other participant).

Unlike Villanova, New Mexico did not have nonconference games scheduled throughout the year; theirs ended on Jan. 3. They played their third and final road nonconference game at Texas-Arlington (9-15, #272) and won, 64-55. So entering Mountain West play in January, the Lobos had a glittering 13-2 record, albeit one achieved against one of the worst schedules in Christendom. (If #5 Wake Forest hadn't been on it, it might very well have been THE worse.)

In the next part, there will be still more discussion of the New Mexico Lobos and what you can expect in Friday's game... More to come!!!