#3 Villanova/#14 American - "American's Got Talent" - How American Could Pull Off the Upset

To the Villanova Wildcat faithful-

In this, my final post before the 7:20 PM tip-off, I'll address some of the intangibles that could fuel what would be the most significant upset of the 2009 tournament thus far... (as of the afternoon sessions, the lowest seed to win was #10 Maryland over #7 California...)

American has certain advantages that most low seeds don't have... in summary-

• Geographical proximity to the site - while they will certainly be vastly outnumbered by Villanova fans, AU's short distance from Philadelphia means that AU will be bringing a large crowd with them...
• Tournament seasoning - The team has six seniors in its rotation, and nearly every key player in the rotation played against #2 Tennessee in last year's NCAA tournament.
• Experience - it's unusual for a team - at any level -to have six seniors that play regularly, and that's a big plus for them...
  

Then, of course, there is the eternal enemy for any high-seeded team -

• Underestimating the formidability of the opponent. Obviously, although we fans (and the coaching staff, although they weren't here at the time) remember the Old Dominion catastrophe from 14 years ago, it does not rank at all in the minds of the players, given how distant it was. However, I think that underestimation of a low-seeded team is less likely for Villanova than for other teams, given that Jay Wright's record in the first round is strong (the only loss coming in a #8-#9 game to Kentucky in 2007).

I will be posting a preliminary recap, immediately after the game ends... but please check back for the full recap, which will be written as quickly as possible (in between scouting the #6 UCLA/#11 Virginia Commonwealth contest, which will - hopefully - feature Villanova's second round opponent on Saturday...)

Go Wildcats! Ground the Eagles!

Various Viewpoints - Other Previews, Including VUHoops Guest Contributor Ed '77's "American Graffitti"

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

I'll have another post on the upcoming contest with #14 American, so check back... in the meantime, here's a roundup of what the other Villanova blogs have been saying - and they have a lot of good stuff, in this edition of Various Viewpoints...

Rounding up some of the other Villanova blog previews, I'd like to particularly recommend American Graffiti, published by a guest VUHoops.com contributor, Ed '77. He meticulously breaks down the potential each individual player's matchup versus the opponent's counterpart, and also runs down a long series of categories (common opponents, intangibles, etc.)

Other good stuff:

• Chris at IBBW - preGame #3 Villanova vs. #14 American and Under the Hood... #14 American are worthwhile.....
  
• greyCat at VBTN brings out the numbers in Preview American University -- NCAA First Round, and also has an entertaining look at Villanova's March 19 history in Beyond the Numbers - St. Joseph...
• The Villanovan Sports Blog introduces Villanova fans to American in Let's Meet the American Eagles....
• Pete at Let's Go 'Nova has Villanova Faces American in Tourney Opener...
• Tim at 'Nova News has Round 1: American...
  

Check back here for my final thoughts heading into the first round...

Go Wildcats!

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round - "Still Preoccupied with 1995" - Where Would An AU Upset Rank In Villanova's NCAA Tournament History?

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

It's time to consider the doomsday scenario- where would an upset by American rank in the history of Villanova in the NCAA tournament?

If you're looking for the Villanova/American preview, you can read Part 1 and Part 2 and Part 3, and also get the view from an American University blog...

Since the modern incarnation of the 64-team tournament in 1985 - the same year in which Villanova so memorably won the tournament as a #8 seed - the track record for #14 seeds facing #3 seeds is better than one what might think. There have been 80 first-round games between those seeds, and the #14 seed has won 11 times (a little less than 14%). But perhaps the more significant statistic is that it's only happened twice (in 36 opportunities) since 2000, according to Bleacher Report...Why is that?

I speculate that one reason for the increasing futility for the #14 seeds, is the "pod" system which the NCAA installed in 2002. This permits more high-seeded teams (such as Villanova this year) to play close to home (or in the case of this year's Villanova Wildcats, at their quasi-home venue), and thus decreases the possibility of an upset...

"Still Preoccupied with 1995..."

While we're on the subject of #3/#14 upsets, we're going to have to discuss 1995 - one of the eleven aforementioned upsets.

In the worst first-round fiasco in school history, the red-hot Kerry Kittles/Jason Lawson/Alvin Williams/Eric Eberz/Jonathan Haynes team - the only Wildcats squad, before or since, to win the Big East tournament - fell in triple-overtime to #14 Old Dominion, in Albany, NY. ODU was led by Petey Sessoms, a name which is indelibly etched in the mind of any Villanova fan who observed what happened.

The one positive aspect of the disaster (at least in retrospect) is the fact that - we have to acknowledge this - it was a tremendously entertaining and exciting game, even being on the wrong end of it. Triple-overtime in the NCAA tournament. It's one of the games that I best remember of all the tournaments, regardless of the teams which participated.

Of course, Villanova will benefit from the pod system here - the 1995 game was played on a neutral court in Albany. So American's chance to pull off the upset is considerably lower than ODU's was.

However, if you look at it from the opposite perspective, an upset would be that much more impressive. If #14 American were to vanquish #3 Villanova, on its de facto home court in Philadelphia, there's a pretty good chance that it would be the most significant upset of the entire tournament during the first round. No #16 seed has ever won a game (although a surprisingly large number have come close to doing so), and only four #15 seeds have done so (likewise).

One reason why the 1995 fiasco is so well-remembered, is the fact that Villanova was the trendy team - after the Big East tournament championship - to select to reach the Final Four (and in some of the more optimistic scenarios, win the national championship). This view was widely shared not just by Wildcat partisans, but many of the national analysts. So when that team fell in the first round, it sent shock waves throughout March Madness, nationally.

Keep checking back for more posts on Villanova/American as Thursday progresses, and for complete analysis and recaps...

Go Wildcats! Ground the Eagles!

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round Preview - Part 3 - Breaking Down the American Eagles Rotation

To the Wildcat faithful-

In Part 3, Breaking Down the American Eagles, I'll analyze coach Jeff Jones's rotation and discuss what the Villanova Wildcats might (or might not) encounter on Thursday night at the Wachovia Center... You can also read Part 1 and Part 2 and get the view from an American University blog...

The team is about as experienced, as one can get in 21st-century college basketball - they start five seniors. Moreover, this is their second consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament. As a #15 seed, they gave #2 Tennessee a challenging game in the first round in 2008 (in spite of the 15-point final margin, it was closer than that). Of particular interest, is the fact that all half-dozen seniors on the roster saw significant playing time all of last season, as well. Three of the five starters are still in DC.

Unsurprisingly, since they returned all but two starters from last season, they were the consensus preseason choice to repeat as Patriot League champions, which they did... Jeff Jones was named Patriot League Coach of the Year.

American relies primarily on scoring from three seniors: Garrison Carr, Brian Gilmore, and Derrick Mercer. There are three other seniors in the rotation: Jordan Nichols (an opponent of Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham, and Dwayne Anderson, while attending DeMatha High School in Maryland), Frank Borden, and Bryce Simon. There are a couple of underclassmen in the rotation; the most notable being Nick Hendra, a sophomore guard who comes off the bench.

In facing the Eagles, the Wildcats - senior-laden as they are - are meeting a rare team, whose rotation is (albeit marginally) more experienced than themselves. Of the Wildcats' eight-man rotation, both Coreys are freshmen, and Antonio Pena had a redshirt year. Reynolds and Reggie Redding are juniors. (Of course, this is the NCAA tournament, and every player on the team has been to the NCAA tournament every year he has been a Wildcat.)

It will likely be a matchup of speed and quickness over size. American mirrors Villanova in this respect, also. None of the six Eagles who play the bulk of the minutes are over 6-8 - and Mercer and Carr, two of the three best players, are both under six feet.

The Wildcats, with their tall wing players (Redding, Stokes, and Anderson), will have a defensive advantage in this regard. Of course, American likes to play a zone defense anyhow, and will have to figure out an answer for Dante Cunningham in the middle. Collapsing upon him and forcing the Wildcats' perimeter shooters to beat them may be an effective strategy.

Mercer, the point guard, is the reigning Patriot League Player of the Year, and Carr, the shooting guard, was first-team All-Patriot. They would likely be defended by Reynolds and Redding, respectively. Gilmore, the forward, ranked eighth in the Patriot League in scoring and was ninth in rebounding, and was named to the second-team All-Patriot squad.

Those are the Big Three, the only Eagles to average 32 or more minutes a game and the ones upon whom Jay Wright and his staff will likely focus. The rest of the rotation plays significantly less. Nichols is fourth in minutes at 27; Hendra, the sophomore who comes off the bench, averages 21.6; Borden, the fifth starter, averages less than 20 minutes. There are a couple of other Eagles who are role players, whose playing time vacillates sharply depending on the game, but they would be unlikely to have a significant impact. Unlike the Wildcats, who have a clearly defined eight-man rotation, American's will vary by the game. There are six players who play the most, and so that's whom we'll discuss...

One of the players whom we won't likely see is hometown product Joe Hill, a freshman from Plymouth Meeting, Pa., who played at Fort Washington's Germantown Academy, the alma mater of Villanova great Alvin Williams; he's played in seven games this year. Unless the game is uncompetitive down the stretch, Hill won't likely get into the action.

From the perimeter, Carr will look to shoot the most often, and to a lesser extent, Gilmore. Mercer, Hendra, and Simon will also take a shot from there, but nowhere near as often. The team tends to rely on defense, as they held their Patriot League opponents to the fewest points and lowest shooting percentage of any team in the league, according to CBS Sports's American Eagles report: Strategy and Personnel....

Nichols is the important defender underneath, leading the Eagles with 34 blocks and second on the team in rebounding. One weakness is the foul line, as Nichols and Hendra in particular average just 51% and 58%, respectively; Mercer, the star point guard, shoots only 61%. Nichols makes up for it, though, with a remarkable 65.2% percentage from the floor.

Check back for further posts previewing the #3 Villanova/#14 American game on Thursday.

Go Wildcats!

American U. Blog Quotes Coach Jeff Jones on AU Strategy for Villanova in NCAA First Round; AU's Nichols on 3 Wildcats Who Are Former MD HS Opponents

To the Wildcat faithful-

The American University student paper, The Eagle, has a staff writer blogging his experiences following the Eagles. In today's edition, "We're Dancin' Again: Back in the NCAA Tournament", author Mike Unger has a substantive quote from American coach Jeff Jones, analyzing potential strategy and discussing the assignment to Philadelphia. Unger also interviewed one of American's starters (and leading shot blocker) Jordan Nichols. I was so impressed by this blog, that I've temporarily included it in the Various Viewpoints feed that you see over on the right sidebar...

Jones - the former star player and 1990s coach at Virginia - on facing Villanova in Philadelphia:

"It's certainly not ideal, but there's nothing we can do about it, so we're not going to spend a whole lot of time worrying about it. Bottom line, we've been in those situations before. I think we've got 11 road wins this season, so we're accustomed to being on the road. I think we certainly will have decent representation from American. My guess would be that the VCU crowd, if we can keep things close and make things interesting, the VCU crowd will jump on our bandwagon. That kind of happened a year ago down in Birmingham. If you looked around, Tennessee probably had more Volunteer Orange than any other color, but we were able to hang in there and have a shot, at least for a while all the other teams' fans got behind us. If we can hang in there, that might happen on Thursday night as well."

Jones on Villanova's strategy:

"Statistically, you look at the number of free throws they've shot. That shows they're an aggressive team. They're not going to settle just for jump shots. Dante Cunningham, their biggest player, can nail the 16- to 17-foot jump shot. Scottie Reynolds can put the ball on the floor, both the Coreys can put the ball on the floor. They really attack you and force you to guard. One of the keys for us will be fighting and moving our feet to stay in front of them."

"Their mentality is they're going to attack the rim. One of the things in talking to the people we did talk to, they describe Villanova as being every bit as physical as Pittsburgh, just not with those real big bodies."

Unger relayed a student question for Jones, on "how AU is going to go about trying to guard Cunningham and Reynolds, and whose job that will be:"

"It will be a collective effort, but certainly Derrick will get a good close and personal look at Reynolds, and Jordan Nichols will be the match-up for Dante Cunningham, but they aren't going to be able to do it by themselves. We're going to have to do a good job with help defense, trying to take away some of the driving lanes that Scottie Reynolds has."

"With Dante Cunningham, he's so good at using the ball screens, the pick and pop situations, shooting that mid-range shot, so we've got to handle those situations well. It's a collective effort. It's simplistic to think how you defend players like that is simply at the half-court defensively. I think how we play offensively, not allowing ourselves to take quick, bad shots, not allowing ourselves to turn the ball over and allowing them to get out in open court situations, all those things go hand in hand to put ourselves in the best position possible to make them work. I don't know that we're necessarily going to be able to stop those guys, they're really, really good. We want to make them work for everything they're going to get."

In the same post, Unger interviews Nichols, who faced none other than Wildcats Scottie Reynolds, Dante Cunningham, and Dwayne Anderson, while playing for DeMatha High School in Maryland. He also discusses the importance of American staying out of foul trouble, and their reaction to being assigned to nearby Philadelphia... In Nichols's own words...

On Cunningham, Anderson, and Reynolds:

"Cunningham and Anderson I played against St. John's. Cunningham was maybe the best player in our conference. When I was a senior I played against Scottie Reynolds, and he dropped about 50 on us, at American actually. We still won, but he dropped 50 on us. All those players were great when I played against them - they're phenomenal players."

"Just like I've gotten better and changed as a player, I'm sure [Cunningham] is probably a much different player than he was in high school. They have him doing a whole lot with the ball in his hands, inside and out. I don't think what I learned in high school is going to help me out there right now, I'm going to need some help from my teammates to guard him, because he's a prolific player."

5:00	Nichols on foul trouble: "Staying out of foul trouble is going to be very, very key for us, especially with the way they attack the rim and get to the free throw line a lot. A few quick fouls on a couple of our guys and that would really put us in a lot of trouble."

5:02

Nichols on heading to Philly: "It was a mixed reaction. Some of the guys were dreaming of Miami. But Philadelphia, the more everyone thinks about it, I think we're getting really excited about it. We should have a good fan base out there, the trip won't take too much out of us. It's just like driving up to Lafayette or Lehigh, except we're playing in front of 22,000 instead of 2,200."

Here is the direct link to this fine American Eagles-focused blog - "Marching Through March" by Mike Unger.

Check back for more posts, further previewing Villanova's NCAA first-round opponent...

Go Wildcats!

#3 Villanova/#14 American in NCAA First Round Preview - Part 2 - Looking at American's Patriot League Schedule and Results

To the Wildcat faithful-

In Part 2 of the #3 Villanova/#14 American NCAA First Round Preview, I'll look at American's Patriot League schedule and results, and see what we can learn about the Eagles, and what it might tell us about Thursday...

Part 2 - American's Patriot League Schedule and Results

American finished with a 24-7 record overall, 13-1 in regular-season Patriot League play, and won three games in the conference tournament. According to Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com, American finished - as of March 9 - with a RPI of 77, which is outstanding for a Patriot League team. As a member of the Patriot League, AU finished with a SOS of 239, which gives an indication of the weakness of the conference - especially because the Eagles had an extremely rigorous nonconference schedule for a low-major conference team.

What does this information tell us?

Patriot League Schedule

American entered the Patriot League with a 8-5 record. The Eagles then won the Patriot League regular-season and tournament championships, which clearly established them as the premier team in the conference. American went 13-1 in the regular season before winning three games in the tournament, leaving them at 16-1.

American won the regular-season Patriot League by two games over Holy Cross, which finished 11-3. However, the Eagles did have a number of close calls, despite losing only a single game, @ Holy Cross. They won two games in overtime - against the two teams which (BTW) have the oldest intercollegiate football rivalry. One was Lehigh at home, but the other was really surprising - @ Lafayette, which finished in a last-place tie in the eight-team conference with a record of 4-10, 8-22 (306 RPI). And that was in the season finale.

Other close victories were @ Navy (one point) and @ Bucknell. Travelling to Jay Wright's alma mater - which finished in seventh place, along with the aforementioned Lafayette, the Bison finished 4-10, 7-23 (293), and the Eagles won by just two points. Less surprisingly, American beat Holy Cross and Navy at home, by five and six points respectively.

Patriot League Tournament

The Eagles did enjoy a huge advantage, in that the entire tournament was in Washington. After surviving @ Lafayette in overtime in the season finale, the top-seeded Eagles got to face them again, just four days later. And this time, American won 78-56.

The semifinals were another matter, especially in light of the fact that American had conquered Army easily in both regular-season games. First, American won in Washington, allowing just 34 points in a 22-point victory. Then, @ West Point, the Eagles held the Black Knights to just 36 points in a 24 point victory. So it was extraordinarily surprising, that after scoring just 70 points - combined - in two previous games against American, the Black Knights nearly stunned American in the semifinals in DC, losing just 61-60.

American faced the runner-up, Holy Cross, in the final; they had split the series with the Crusaders, each team winning at home. And in DC, the pattern held true; however, the Eagles had no trouble claiming the NCAA bid, conquering the Crusaders 73-57 (they had won by six at home in the regular season.)

Part 3 will be coming up soon...

Go Wildcats!