Selection Sunday: Villanova To Receive 30th NCAA Bid - And 5th Consecutive Under Jay Wright

To the Wildcat faithful-

On the high holy day of the college basketball calendar, it seems only fitting that we acknowledge that the 2008-09 Wildcats will - in a few short hours - have attained the distinctive honor of being the 30th Main Line squad to be invited to the NCAA tournament. In their 29 previous appearances, they have posted an outstanding record of 44-29.

They also will be the fifth consecutive team to do so, a tribute to the fine coaching of Jay Wright. Wright has reached postseason play in all eight of his seasons on the Main Line, heading to the NIT in 2002, 2003, and 2004, and to the NCAA tournament in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Wright, while at Villanova, is now 7-4 in the NCAA tournament, with two Sweet 16s and an Elite Eight appearance to his credit.

In fact, today marks four years to the day - March 15, the Ides of March - that Jay Wright and Villanova received their first bid of the 21st century, ending a six-year drought - you can read my recap from March 15, 2005, at Villanova in NCAAs, Faces New Mexico on Friday!!!

Unlike last season, however, there will be no unpleasant suspense. The Wildcats were rewarded with a NCAA bid last season, to the surprise of some observers. For the team, coaching and support staff, and fans, it was nerve-wracking agony to see if a bid would be forthcoming. Fortunately, they vindicated the wisdom of the Selection Committee and made it all the way to the Sweet 16.

This year's bid will further bolster Villanova's standing among the elite, traditional powers nationally. Villanova will no longer be a tie for ninth place with Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish will not receive a bid today...

According to the Villanova media guide, here are the schools with the highest number of NCAA bids, entering this season... (whether the team will receive a bid today is in parentheses)

1. Kentucky - 50 (probably not)
2. UCLA - 41 (yes)
3. North Carolina - 40 (yes)
4. Kansas - 37 (yes)
5. Indiana - 35 (certainly not)
6. Louisville - 34 (yes)
7. Duke - 32 (yes)
8. Syracuse - 31 (yes)
9. (tie) Villanova - 29 (yes), Notre Dame - 29 (no)
   

I speculate - and this speculation is of no value - that we end up with a #4 seed. But as soon as the brackets come up, I'll have a post on the subject....

Go Wildcats!

Villanova in the NCAA Tournament - First Round - PART II - Lobos In Sheep's Clothing

To the Wildcat faithful-

Here's Part II...

In the second half, Villanova made only three baskets on 23 shots (13%) and missed all 10 three-pointers it attempted, and lost the half 36-21, committing a dozen turnovers. The Lobos fortunately only went 4-16 from beyond the arc, or else it would have been considerably more terrifying down the stretch.

Villanova still had the game comfortably in hand as late as the under-eight TV timeout, cruising with a 19-point, 42-23 advantage with 7:59 to go. Time to start preparing for Florida, maybe give the bench players a little more time, get Lowry out of the game and rested.

Then the wolves began to circle, and the sheep disguises disappeared. In just over four minutes, the Lobos bayed at the moon, rallying their pack for one of the most stunning comebacks I've ever seen, albeit one which was ultimately fruitless. In the next 3:09, New Mexico went on a 13-2 run, pulling to within 44-36 on Alfred Neale's three, bringing Jay Wright to call for a halt to the proceedings (which frankly was long overdue).

The Wildcats appeared to have stopped the comeback cold at 1:23, when Lowry made a pair of free throws to push the lead back to 52-42. But 'Nova then began crumbling at the foul line. It wasn't over, and the Lobos actually got the deficit down to just five in the final minute of play.

New Mexico was kept alive by the fact that Mike Nardi, Curtis Sumpter, and Allan Ray combined to miss FIVE consecutive free throws in the final minute, before Ray made his second to boost the lead to 53-47 with 26 seconds left, after But everyone was sweating. In Jake Nevin, where I watched the game, it was a silent as a tomb, other than low groans when each missed free throw clanged off the rim. Nobody, least of all the Wildcats, relaxed until Nardi iced it by making two with 16 seconds left to push it to 55-47, the final score.

It was official: Villanova Victory. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief that the Wildcats had been spared the embarrassment of coughing up a 23-point second-half lead.

Let's look at the numbers:

Team as a Whole

The Wildcats' key to victory, aside from allowing only 11 points in the first half, was clobbering the Lobos on the boards, grabbing every loose ball for a 51-37 advantage. However, this was reduced by shooting a miserable 28% both from the floor and beyond the arc, as well as committing 20 turnovers. Since all the missed free throws came down the stretch, the numbers were surprisingly good (17-24, 71%).

The Wildcats also were outstanding at the defensive end, hounding the Lobos into 29.8% shooting, including 17% from beyond the arc (4-25) and 17 turnovers. It was the first time New Mexico's potent offense had been held below 30% in five seasons, since March 9, 2000 at BYU.

Starters

Sheridan: Described above.

Sumpter/Ray: As noted above, both had horrible days. Sumpter mitigated his a little bit by grabbed a team-high dozen rebounds.

Foye/Nardi: Both stepped up and had good statistical performances, combining for four steals, six assists and a blocked shot.

Bench

Kyle Lowry: Despite being hobbled by a stomach virus, he came off the bench for 20 minutes. Lowry had eight points, five rebounds, three steals and an assist. Had he not been available, 'Nova might easily have lost.

Jason Fraser: The Lobos were small and so Fraser wasn't needed as much, playing only 14 minutes (two points, four boards).

Marcus Austin: The Big Dog played against the Lobos for three minutes, scoring one basket and collecting one rebound.

Breaking Down the Lobos

Only two of McKay's seven-man rotation reached double figures: Granger and point guard Mark Walters.

Better than Advertised: Walters. He had 14 points, six boards, two assists and a steal, while four fouls limited him to 31 minutes.

Worse than Advertised: sharpshooter Troy DeVries, the best shooter in the Mountain West Conference. DeVries missed all seven three-point attempts, finishing with just two points and committing three turnovers.

Some other notes:

Just noticed that the Mountain West logo has purple trim, which is appropriate given the "purple mountain majesty' immortalized in the classic song "America the Beautiful." Villanova doesn't face Mountain West teams all that often: it hadn't faced a school which is now a member of the conference since 1990. The only times 'Nova had faced its members, respectively, prior to Friday:

Air Force: Never Brigham Young: 1951, 1970, 1984 Colorado State: 1965 UNLV: 1985 Utah: 1951, 1963 San Diego State: 1982, 1989, 1990 Wyoming: 1955, 1968

Some positives to take away:

It was Villanova's lowest point output in a NCAA victory, since defeating Princeton, 50-48, in the first round of the 1991 tournament. (It should be noted that Princeton very well could have won that game, running a brilliant set play to draw a foul while attempting to inbound the ball. Trailing and having to inbound under its own basket at the end, the Princeton player ran along the end line, to inbound the ball. When the Wildcat guarding him raced to keep up, without looking where he was going, he utterly bulldozed the Tiger whom coach Pete Carrill had cleverly planted there, explicitly to take a charge. But the official blew the call and failed to whistle the foul, dooming the Tigers to defeat.)

It was Villanova's first NCAA victory since 1997, when Tim Thomas, Alvin Williams, and Jason Lawson led #4 Villanova to a 101-91 victory over odious #13 Long Island, 101-91, in Winston-Salem, N.C.

The 47 Lobos points were the fewest surrendered by Villanova to a NCAA opponent, since yielding just 43 to Maryland in the Sweet 16 in 1985, winning 46-43. (In the shot clock era, which began the following year, the previous low had been the 48 yielded to Princeton.)

Bottom line - a win's a win. All that matters is that the tournament field has now been reduced to 32 teams. 32 teams still have a chance, however slim, for immortal glory with a national championship, and Villanova is still one of them.

My own personal perspective

I watched the game with approximately 100 people in Jake Nevin Field House on the big screen, in front of the stage. Phil Andrews from WPVI (6-ABC) was also there, with a cameraman, and "Action News" ran a couple of Andrews' interviews with students on its 6 PM newscast. The AV people did a great job in cranking up the sound (you haven't truly lived until you've heard Bill Raftery's baritone reverberate throughout Jake Nevin - "Send it in, big fella!")

Some reactions from fans: One woman sitting behind me, who requested not to be identified, described the game brightly and succinctly, with a smile: "You can quote me - Ugly with a Capital U." After the game was safely over, freshman Kelly Fromuth, from Landenburg in Chester County, described the suddenly-tight game as "stressful at the end. New Mexico did a good job." Fromuth's confidence for the next game was not diminished by the second-half collapse - when asked if 'Nova would beat Florida on Sunday, she replied: "Yes, we're going to win." Junior Matt DePont, an economics major from Annapolis, Md., spoke highly of the mood on campus this week. According to DePont, "the campus has been buzzing, people have been checking scores during classes. Lots of people are talking about skipping classes and going to Nashville." DePont is part of the new generation of Villanova fans: students from outside the Philadelphia metropolitan area, who didn't experience the mid-1990s NCAA setbacks and who approach this year's Wildcats without the cynicism of the older fans. Their optimism is refreshing.

"Five Good Minutes" with .... Phil Andrews of 6-ABC (WPVI)

Andrews is one of the best-known sports anchors in Philadelphia, at perennial ratings champion "Action News" on the ABC affiliate, WPVI. At the event to chat with students for coverage on the 6 PM broadcast, Andrews was gracious enough to have a brief, off-camera conversation with me at halftime, on Villanova, and the Philadelphia media. I had never met him before, but judging from today's conversation, he's very personable and a nice guy. His observations are not verbatim, as I didn't have a recorder with me, but here's the gist of what he said, paraphrased:

On Villanova's prospects:

"I think Villanova is a team that can reach the final [Four]. Wins over Kansas, Boston College."

On the first half of Villanova/New Mexico (remember, this is back when it appeared that victory was a foregone conclusion :)

Andrews was quite high on Villanova's prospects, remarking, "This game really helps them a lot. It gets rid of the jitters, especially for a team with players that have never been there before." "Villanova is getting EVERY rebound and EVERY loose ball. New Mexico, when they're shooting, all their other guys are just standing there."

On the alleged bias against Villanova in the Philadelphia media (I carefully phrased this question, accurately noting that I don't personally believe this is true, but many of our posters do.)

Andrews strongly disagreed with the assertion, that the Philadelphia media is biased against Villanova. "Everyone I know roots for ALL the teams to win, wants to see ALL of them do well." Nor did he give much credence to lingering animosity over the ruptured, since repaired, City Series from the Rollie era (1991). "Some of the older people may feel that way, but I don't think it's widespread. And that still doesn't mean they wouldn't want Villanova to succeed."

On the issue of the Eagles stealing Villanova's thunder this season, and why football dominates sports coverage in Philadelphia:

Three reasons, Andrews feels. First, that "Philadelphia is a blue-collar town and they identify with football." Second, "The Eagles are a 365-day a year story in Philadelphia. Outside of their seasons, nobody wants to talk about the other teams. When Villanova's not playing, nobody wants to talk about them. When the Phillies aren't playing, same thing. When the Sixers aren't playing, same thing." Finally, "The Eagles are universal. Philadelphia is a college basketball hotbed, but the fan base is divided six ways. The college teams don't have THAT strong an appeal, outside of their own students and alumni."

Historical Note: Vasco da Gama

Lundquist and Raftery told an amusing story about the size of the Wildcats' Nashville resort hotel, so large that maps have to be issued to help guests navigate its scope. Apparently, Jay Wright himself got lost in the hotel while trying to find a meeting room he had announced for a 9 AM team breakfast on Thursday morning. While roaming the hotel, he bumped into an equally befuddled Kyle Lowry - who had enough problems already with the stomach flu - and Lowry pleaded that he couldn't find the room, coach. Wright facetiously demanded in mock-anger, "I was wondering where YOU were." Raftery observed, reflecting his fine La Salle education: "Well, Vasco da Gama, he's not. But he's a good coach." I laughed at that, having never dreamed in a million years that the name of the great turn-of-the-16th-century Portuguese explorer of the Age of Discovery, would ever be mentioned during CBS' coverage of the NCAA tournament. (They must learn a lot about Explorers at La Salle :), or that Jay Wright would ever be compared to him.

Unfortunately, since some Americans probably thought da Gama is the latest hot coach at a mid-major being groomed for an ACC slot, or the latest top 6-9 prospect out of Oak Hill Academy- and since there probably wouldn't be a NCAA tournament if it weren't for Da Gama, a quick sketch to explain Raftery's witticism:

Admiral Dom Vasco da Gama was born in Portugal around 1469, and died in India in 1521. He is still remembered 500 years later, because he was the first European to sail from Europe via the open ocean, to the wealthy trade areas of India, instead of snaking through the Mediterranean and rivers to get there. India had peppers and spices, which were among the most valuable commodities in Europe at the time, due to the absence of refrigeration. Prior to the voyage, it wasn't understood that you could reach India from Europe by sailing around the bottom of Africa; it was assumed that the Indian Ocean wasn't connected to any others.

In 1497, five years after Columbus' voyage to America, Da Gama forced the revision of this belief, by sailing from Portugal around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa and onward to India. His legacy was to shift the focus of international trade routes and power from the Mediterranean states such as Venice, to the Atlantic states like Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, and England. Among the historical consequences which flowed from this, was the rise of the British Empire due to trade, including the founding of English colonies along the Atlantic seaboard. And thus - and of only slightly less consequence - the invention of basketball by Dr. James Naismith in Massachusetts and the creation of the NCAA tournament. And Raftery is correct - da Gama probably wouldn't have had too much trouble with the hotel in Nashville... (But could da Gama teach how to break a press? Or recruit effectively in the 21st century? :)

I'll break down Florida the rest of Saturday, and the preview will be posted as soon as possible...

Back to Part I...

Villanova in the NCAA Tournament - First Round - Lobos in Sheep's Clothing - Villanova Hangs On (Part I)

To the Wildcat faithful-

The #12 New Mexico Lobos (Spanish for "Wolves") were quite effectively disguised in sheep's clothing, during the first half of Friday's first-round NCAA game, when they scored just 11 points - fewer points than their seed, in fact (12). But they changed back into predators in the locker room, nearly rallying for an incredible comeback upset of #5 Villanova. The Wildcats hung on by their claws - BARELY - for a 55-47 victory over the Lobos, who never quit despite trailing 34-11 at halftime.

New Mexico shot 18% in the first half. But then Villanova shot 13% in the second half. And that brief tale of two halves neatly summarizes Friday's bizarre first-round, first-ever matchup between the schools in the NCAA tournament, both returning to the NCAA tournament - after frequent 1990s appearances - for the first time since 1999.

Villanova, now 23-7 overall, advanced to Sunday's second round, where they will face the #4 Florida Gators at 2:15 PM. The Gators had a similar frightening experience earlier in the afternoon, when #13 Ohio University rallied from 20 down with 12 minutes to play to nearly pull off the upset. The Bobcats actually should have WON the game, given that they missed a dunk, threw a ball away and had Florida air-ball a shot for an assist and three-point play in the final two minutes. Villanova is seeking to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1988.

The game was initially announced to take place at 4:45 PM, which was flattering. CBS had held off on announcing the tip-time until deciding which teams were the most attractive to a national audience. Unfortunately, in an insult to both teams, CBS decided to switch VU/Florida with Georgia Tech/Louisville, shifting our game earlier. Which, if you're going for maximum ratings, does not seem to make much sense. (Generally, the closer you are to prime-time, the more viewers there are.) Villanova/Florida brings in #4 Philadelphia, plus higher ratings through the Northeast, as well as the entire state of Florida. Ga. Tech/Louisville brings in Atlanta metro, and Kentucky, plus Rick Pitino's fan base. It wouldn't be a difficult decision for me, but go figure... (CBS must be "America's Most Watched Network", as they love to proudly remind us, for a reason. Although probably not for programming such as that spring-break-shark-attack movie, they're relentlessly flogging throughout the tournament...)

New Mexico's season, as well as its nine-game winning streak, ended with the defeat, as they completed the year with a mark of 26-7. They are now 1-17 against current Big East members in all games, and 0-4 against the Big East in the NCAA tournament, having previously lost to eventual champion UConn (1999), Allen Iverson's Georgetown (1996) and Syracuse (1998) in the second round. Villanova was the eighth Big East member the Lobos have now faced.

It was New Mexico's first opening-round ouster since losing to Virginia, 57-54, in 1994, as they made it to the second round in 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999. The program still has never qualified for a Sweet 16 which required two victories (it made it in 1974 but only one was necessary then.) The 47 points were easily the lowest ever for the Lobos, in their 18 game NCAA history: the previous low had been 54 in the loss to Virginia eleven years ago. They also were a season low, as the previous had been 53 against BYU on Jan. 24.

Unless the schools meet in a holiday tournament, this was the first and last meeting for a while. After this experience, it seems highly unlikely that Jay Wright would like to fly across the country to Albuquerque, to visit the terrifying Pit for his half of a friendly home-and-home series. (Although I would enjoy it...)

As for the Lobos, they had a tremendous 102nd season of basketball, and one for which their hordes of passionate fans ought to be VERY, VERY proud. The 26 victories were the second highest in school history. They returned to the NCAA tournament for the first time in six years. They were Mountain West Conference tournament champions for the first time, second-place finishers in the Mountain West regular season, two wins out of three over regular-season champion Utah. They were 12 wins better than last year and a whopping 16 better than two years ago.

But most importantly, they showed a lot of heart and composure out there. A lot of teams, being roundly humiliated like that on national television (Eleven points! Think about that!) against a better team with more talented players... away from their home court, where they rack up most of their victories... they would have folded their tents. Nor can the Lobos be accurately described as "a second-half team." In the three seasons under McKay, they are just 2-26 when they are behind at intermission, including 20 losses in a row. Both victories overcame deficits of only five points.

And they didn't. They not only made the final score respectable - the Lobos almost WON, and caused a lot of anxiety throughout 'Nova Nation at rush hour Friday afternoon. They acquitted themselves and the Mountain West Conference very well today. The young, well-traveled Ritchie McKay and his Lobos have a bright future ahead of them, and an even brighter one if they can ever figure out how to win consistently away from the Pit.

The Wildcats were very fortunate, to be able to overcome their two top scorers simultaneously having ABYSMAL games. The adjective "abysmal" doesn't really do it justice, either. They both had their worst games of the season, possibly of their careers as starters. Stars Curtis Sumpter and Allan Ray combined to shoot just 2-22 from the floor and score only six points (they can ordinarily be relied upon for about 33, based on their averages), as well as commit eight turnovers. When Sumpter and Ray have more turnovers than points, 'Nova would probably be defeated 99% of the time.

Will Sheridan had the best performance, finishing with a game-high 14 rebounds, eight points, three steals, two blocks and an assist. Mike Nardi had the scoring lead with 15 points, but Randy Foye led the team overall with 14 points, nine rebounds and four assists. Unfortunately, all but two of those points came in the first half and Foye also committed seven turnovers.

For New Mexico, superstar and soon-to-be-NBA-millionaire Danny Granger was reasonably contained, finishing with 15 points and 12 rebounds and shooting just 5-16 from the floor. (Worth noting: Diplomat George F. Kennan, the architect of America's Cold War policy of containing Communism and the guy primarily responsible for introducing the word "containment" into popular usage, died a couple of days ago at 101. He had no idea his legacy would live on in "SportsCenter" catchphrases.) Facing Villanova's formidable defensive armor, which would shut down his supporting cast, the Lobos vitally needed to have a huge game from Granger to emerge victorious. What's truly remarkable is that Granger didn't have a particularly great game, and the Lobos still came so close to winning. More on the box score numbers later in the article.

It was undoubtedly a euphoric day for coach Jay Wright. He won his first-ever NCAA victory as a head coach, after two first-round losses with Hofstra. But late Friday night, Wright undoubtedly halted his tape-watching of Florida long enough, to at least catch the end of #14 Bucknell/#3 Kansas, both Villanova opponents this year (and both victories). Wright's alma mater, for whom he played four years, stunned the Jayhawks and earned the first-ever NCAA tournament victory for the Patriot League.

Of course, here's what today's recap could have looked like:

"The Wildcats now own one of the most ignominious collapses in NCAA tournament history, having coughed up a 24-point second half lead to a #12 seed on Friday, the New Mexico Lobos. Villanova had a 34-11 lead at halftime and couldn't seal the deal. Coach Jay Wright may be politically wounded for many years, or perhaps permanently, by this fiasco. This made the notorious 1995 triple overtime defeat to #14 Old Dominion appear to be a particularly well-played contest that just happened to produce a few bad bounces, and the fan reaction to ODU to be a well-adjusted, serene acceptance of defeat.

The magnitude and circumstances of this catastrophe meant that a 5-12 upset was one of the top three national tournament storylines of the night, competing effectively with upset victories by #13 Vermont and #14 Bucknell, both teams from low-major conferences over recent Final Four qualifiers in Syracuse and Kansas.

In light of this disaster, posters would be strongly advised NOT to visit VUSports.com for an appropriate amount of time - such as a decade, or maybe a century. Logging on prior to the dissipation of the rage is ultrahazardous, might lead your computer to ignite and burst into flames right on the spot.

Rumors have circulated that as a result of the fear and loathing generated by this crumbling, Villanova is prepared to drop basketball for a few years, much in the way it did football a generation ago. Some time away from the sport may very well be needed to permit the gaping wound caused by this catastrophe to heal. According to one unnamed VU source, "We've had a pretty good run over 85 years of intercollegiate competition. A miraculous national title, three Final Fours, fourteen Sweet Sixteens, a lot of great players, top 10 program in all-time victories... Why should we wreck that legacy by continuing to play?"

But seriously... I genuinely shudder to imagine what the fan reaction would have been, if Villanova had lost this game under these circumstances, being up 23 at the half against a double-digit seed. During the entire final minute, as New Mexico kept pulling closer and the Wildcats kept clanging free throws, all sorts of words and images began flashing through my mind of a bleak Villanova future:

"Malaise... defeat... Petey Sessoms... Old Dominion... new set of villains... empty stands... lack of fan interest"...

But it didn't happen. There won't be anybody bitterly hurling the terms "New Mexico" or "34-11" as epithets at Jay Wright and his players for the next ten years or more. It won't haunt the program or fatally undermine Wright's regime. He won't be asked about on it the alumni circuit at every appearance.

The game took a while to get rolling, both literally and figuratively. Tip times are an inexact science, as all tourney watchers know. Prior to the game, VU/UNM was estimated to tip at 2:55 PM EST. But Florida/Ohio U. ran very long, when the Bobcats nearly came back to win, and so the Wildcats were delayed till 3:14 PM EST (CBS likely didn't mind :)

And neither team scored for a while - the first two minutes. Eventually, the Wildcats' shots began to fall, but New Mexico's wouldn't till the second half. Villanova sprinted out to a 12-2 lead and things looked good, but we had no idea just how good it would get in that half.

As the lower seed, New Mexico sported its cherry-red uniforms with silver numbers and trim. The school colors are cherry (for the sunsets over the New Mexico's Sandia Mountains) and silver (for the Rio Grande's reflection, when you look at it from the mountains), according to the media guide. The uniforms looked great, but that was about all that looked great for the Lobos during the first 20 minutes. They were absolutely annihilated by Villanova's defense.

thrashed New Mexico in that half, in probably the most dominant of any team thus far in the tournament. Lobos' Lapse: How bad was New Mexico in the first half? (These are not typos.)

Randy Foye personally outscored the entire Lobo team, 12-11.

Nobody other than Granger scored ANY points until backup point guard Ryan Wall converted a pair of free throws at the 5:26 mark, to make it 26-8. Nobody other than Granger had a field goal until the 3:54 mark, when David Chiotti hit a jumper to make it 29-10.

The Lobos trailed 12-2, 26-6, 29-8, and 34-10 at various points. They finally made it to double digits on Chiotti's jumper.

At halftime, New Mexico was 4-22 from the floor (18%). If you subtract Granger's 3-9, the rest of the Lobos were 1-13 from the floor. They were 0-9 from beyond the arc. They had been outrebounded 22-15 and had committed 11 turnovers. Villanova had shot 42% from beyond the arc (8-19).

McKay must have given SOME inspiring speech at halftime. Some leadership figures inspire heroic efforts from their rank-and-file - George Washington and Napoleon Bonaparte come immediately to mind - and McKay clearly took a page out of their playbook to get those guys to come back with a vengeance like that.

Don't forget to read Part II of the game recap...

Villanova in the NCAA Tournament - First Round - The Ultimate Guide To Villanova/New Mexico (Part I)

To the Wildcat faithful-

Wondering about the Lobos? Here is Part I of the Ultimate Guide to Villanova vs. New Mexico, in the first round of the NCAA tournament. In this part, we'll descend into the Pit, and explain the Lobos' pitiful nonconference schedule.

If you're like me, unless you've ever had reason to live in the Southwest, probably the only exposure you've had to the Lobos are some late-night Big Monday games on ESPN, seeing the screaming red-clad fans waving signs and watching the Lobos face Utah or Air Force or some other Mountain West opponent at the Pit. Well, here are the basics:

UNM is located in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and has an enrollment of 26,500; it actually predates New Mexican statehood by 23 years, as it was established by the Territorial Legislature in 1889 (New Mexico, along with Arizona, were the last two of the 48 continental United States to be granted that status, in 1912.)

Unquestionably, the Lobos' signature aspect as a program - the equivalent of Villanova's 1985 miracle title run - is Bob King Court at "The Pit", located 37 feet lower than street level. Although this game obviously - and fortunately - won't be played there, it's worth examining in some detail because it's impossible to adequately discuss UNM's program without it. UNM's home facility, is in fact one of the most remarkable venues in college basketball. Entirely independently of this game, if I ever had any reason to be in Albuquerque, I definitely would have wanted to stop in and take a look inside, even if there wasn't a game going on.

In June 1999, Sports Illustrated attempted to classify "The Top 20 Sporting Venues in the 20th Century", not just in America, but in the entire world. And the Pit not only qualified for the list, it was #13, ahead of such historically important sites as the Rose Bowl, St. Andrew's Golf Course in Scotland, and Notre Dame Stadium. Among college basketball sites, it rated second only to Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke. (I would take issue with why the Palestra wouldn't be included, or at least in the neighborhood on that list, but never mind.)

It is one of the most historically important venues in America, and probably in the West second only to Pauley Pavilion at UCLA. There are two chief reasons - one is its unique nature as a den of wolves for visitors - one of the toughest in America. The other is the fact that it has been a frequent NCAA tournament host, and can claim the single most dramatic moment in NCAA history (and second-greatest title upset, to Villanova in 1985 :)

namely, the Derek-Whittenburg-to-Lorenzo-Charles pass/dunk, that helped #6 seed NC State shock Houston, then-Akeem Olajuwon and Phi Slamma Jamma in 1983. It gave Jim Valvano, the author of the upset, a permanent place in NCAA lore, and the footage of him giddily wandering around the court in the aftermath is one of the greatest images in NCAA history.

Yep, back then, the Final Four was a sufficiently intimate affair that a city as small as Albuquerque, with a 18,000 seat building, could host it. (Ironically, the popularity engendered by the NC State and Villanova victories ultimately forced the NCAA, during the 1990s, to stipulate that only domes could host it in the future.) Of course, Albuquerque can still host earlier rounds, which it has done seven times, most recently in 2002, and it will be hosting again during this tournament (although of course the Lobos can't play there).

It is unquestionably one of the most difficult home courts for visiting teams in America - and it arguably is THE toughest. The numbers bear that out. New Mexico has an .802 winning percentage in the building during its 39 years of existence. This year, the Lobos went 18-1 there. That might not sound like a big deal; Villanova's winning percentage in the Pavilion is almost as high; entering the season it was .763. But Villanova has a strong home-court advantage as well, and the numbers are also a bit skewed because so many of the toughest opponents have been played in South Philly. And the Pit has been there for 39 years, almost twice as long for the Pavilion. (And until the 1990s, New Mexico had received only two NCAA bids in school history.)

Why is the Pit so tough?

Well, for one thing, it's incredibly loud. During the 1998-99 season, a St. Petersburg Times reporter attempted to determine conclusively which building in America was the loudest, and he deemed the Pit worthy of the ranking, recording a 118-decibel reading there for a game between the Lobos and Arizona. According to his research, it was higher than Cameron Indoor Stadium for Duke/North Carolina, higher than Allen Field House for Kansas/Iowa, higher than Assembly Hall for Indiana/Purdue (although I don't know if the guy visited the Palestra in Philadelphia during that tour).

The decibel levels is attributable, not just to the location 37 feet below street level, but also the Lobos' incredibly large and loyal following, one of the best fan bases in the country. UNM hasn't fallen out of the top 15 nationally in attendance since 1967, and in all but three of those years they were in the top 10. Attendance is over the 10 million mark (the 10 millionth fan was honored in 2002). They have averaged 15,755 fans per game over a 38-year span, 95% of capacity. Remember, that as we shall see later in this article, the vast majority of these games are not being scheduled against marquee teams like UCLA and North Carolina - to say the least. And they're still AVERAGING 15,000+ every night. Regardless of how good the Lobos are that year. In a small metropolitan area. (Albuquerque is booming - it has over 700,000 residents now, over 100,000 of whom have arrived since 1990 - but it doesn't have a huge suburban area surrounding it. It's not a big metropolitan area.)

What does all of this mean? Well, basically, that if you were an opposing coach you'd be insane to schedule the Lobos if you had to go there for a home-and-home series. Nobody wants to play them on that basis. And as a result, New Mexico suffers from perpetual schedule sclerosis, often logging very weak OOC schedules just to find opponents. Nor can it simply pack up and hit the road. Programs at this level want to play home-and-home, and UNM isn't going to simply agree to go on the road without a return game.

So every year, UNM's schedule is loaded with home cupcakes and lots of cholesterol. The only teams willing to go there, usually, are ones that need the guarantee money and are willing to take a thrashing to get it. (A "guarantee game", the generally accepted euphemism for "cupcake", is a game in which the little school agrees to waive a return game from the big school and usually agrees that the game be officiated by officials from the big school's own conference. In exchange for these concessions, the little school gets a wad of cash from the gate receipts, which it uses to fund its athletic program.)

One clear sign of this pattern: we all know that Villanova's cupcake opponents come generally from the East Coast, because of the ease of travel and lack of expense. Most are a short bus ride away, in New York, New Jersey, or New England. You'll notice that, in contrast, many of the teams UNM plays out-of-conference come from NOWHERE near Albuquerque. Traditionally, they play a rare home-and-home, out-of-conference series with New Mexico State, in the same season, every year, which is fortunate because that eats up another spot on the schedule. Basically, UNM has to go farther and farther away from the Southwest just to get someone to agree to fly in to accept their thrashing - probably programs that aren't aware (or indifferent) to the terrors of the Pit. (And it probably has to up the guarantee money to get them to agree to it, because of the increased cost of the trip.)

Usually, over the last 15 years, this killer home-court advantage - given that all of its Mountain West brethren have to come there every year whether they like it or not - is enough to get the Lobos into the NCAA mix, if not always a bid.

Let's look at the season as a whole, now. New Mexico completed its season with a 26-6 overall record, 10-4 in the eight-team Mountain West Conference. (I grow nostalgic thinking about the idea of playing in an eight-team conference where you play everyone twice and develop genuine rivalries and familiarity with the opponents... Ah, the good ol' days of the nine-team Big East...) Their final RPI rating was #67.

They finished second in the Mountain West regular season to Utah, which finished 13-1, the Utes' sole loss coming to the Lobos on Feb. 21 at the Pit, when the Runnin' Utes were ranked #13. Late Saturday night in the East, New Mexico defeated the Runnin' Utes in the tournament final to capture the Mountain West's automatic bid; all tournament games were played at a true neutral court in Denver. The game meant a lot more to the Lobos, who were not guaranteed a bid - whereas the Utes were a lock regardless of the conference tournament. Utah and New Mexico were the only two Mountain West teams to be under NCAA consideration and accordingly the only two to receive bids.

When I did my bubble analysis, I felt that New Mexico had assured of an at-large bid just by reaching the final, but in retrospect that probably wasn't correct. New Mexico, despite BEATING Utah in the final, only ended up with a 12 seed, on a par with the lowest at-large bids. And so it seems reasonable to think that if the Lobos had lost that game, they were certainly on the bubble (although they still might have gotten in, given the weak performances of many other bubble teams.)

The reason why UNM needed the MWC tournament run, was its typical exceptionally, exceptionally, exceptionally, weak out-of-conference schedule. The Lobos played only two other teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament: Utah (three times) and Wake Forest. How weak was the schedule? Jerry Palm rated it 227th in the nation on CollegeRPI.com; Villanova's, in contrast, was 9th. An analysis:

The Lobos opened their season by hosting the NABC Classic, a round-robin tournament with all four teams playing each other once, and with very weak opponents (about as weak as you can get, frankly). Not surprisingly, the Lobos won their own tournament. They opened with North Carolina A&T, whom they beat by 16. (NC A&T finished 6-24 and with a RPI of 312.) They leveled Santa Clara, an average West Coast Conference team, by 34 (Santa Clara ended up 14-16 and #132). And they got past woeful Duquesne, 82-74, in the final (the Atlantic 10 Dukes, who sported ultimately a 8-22 record and #259 rating) . Then they returned home to the Pit and flattened a non-Division I opponent, Western New Mexico, by 40. Four victories, but none, obviously, that would really help them.

The Lobos then embarked on the bulk of their nonconference schedule. They traveled to Oregon, a Pac-10 squad but one which had a dreadful season, and lost by four. The Ducks, who were in the Final Four earlier in the 21st century, quacked to only a 14-13 mark overall, 6-12 Pac-10, and #81 RPI this season. The Lobos ripped off six consecutive victories against middling competition, after that setback. They swept a four-day, home-and-home series with arch-rival New Mexico State, winning one game by 18, one by 19. Some of you may remember the early '90s, when New Mexico State was actually pretty good. Well, those days are over. NMSU had a 4-24 record and # 292 rating. The Lobos then devoured two more tissue-paper teams, Northern Colorado (4-21, #298) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (5-21, # 311).

At this point, bear in mind it is December 12 and they have already played ten games, and they're 9-1. However, no fewer than EIGHT of those games were against seven opponents are among the worst, worst, worst dregs that Division I basketball had to offer in America this season. The only "good" team they played, Oregon, beat them, and the Lobos massacred the only mediocre one, Santa Clara.

Having sufficiently tuned up, the Lobos then battled against some decent competition, Tennessee and #5 Wake Forest, both at the Pit. The Lobos soundly beat Tennessee by 19, on Dec. 19, and were in turned soundly beaten by Wake, 81-64, on Dec. 22.

After Christmas, the Lobos hosted another holiday tournament, this one styled the "Comcast Lobo Invitational". This one was not round-robin, there were just two games per team. Mississippi Valley State was scheduled to face the hosts; at 13-15, 249, this was actually one of the Lobos' more formidable OOC opponents, as incredible as that sounds. The Lobos flattened Jerry Rice's alma mater, 101-68. The Lobos then sacked Troy (11-18, 219) to win their own tournament yet again. (The Lobos missed out on Pepperdine, the other participant).

Unlike Villanova, New Mexico did not have nonconference games scheduled throughout the year; theirs ended on Jan. 3. They played their third and final road nonconference game at Texas-Arlington (9-15, #272) and won, 64-55. So entering Mountain West play in January, the Lobos had a glittering 13-2 record, albeit one achieved against one of the worst schedules in Christendom. (If #5 Wake Forest hadn't been on it, it might very well have been THE worse.)

In the next part, there will be still more discussion of the New Mexico Lobos and what you can expect in Friday's game... More to come!!!