Four Factors That May Have Torpedoed Villanova's Chances of Upsetting North Carolina in the Final Four

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

Of course, I hope all of you had an enjoyable Easter weekend...

Looking at the outcome, back on the evening of Saturday, April 4, with more detachment-

I think that a combination of factors made the difference, between the loss and what could have been a major upset. These factors rose in importance, because looking at the dry numbers on the box score, two elements aren't consistent with a 14-point loss, in which you trailed badly, for nearly the entire game.

1. Villanova - despite being far smaller - actually won the rebounding battle, 50-46, including hauling down 19 on the offensive end, to North Carolina's 14.
2. The teams both had a dozen turnovers.

So in no particular order, the downsides:

1. The number of missed three-point shots that a) were open, and/or b) that rattled in and out. Villanova shot 5/27 from three-point range, a miserable 18.5%. And it wasn't just that the Wildcats' best perimeter shooters missed many shots. There seemed to be a disproportionate number of open looks that were not made, and also a good number that rattled in and out... If Villanova had made, say, 8 of 27 (which is still very poor - less than 33%), the entire tenor of the game would have been different, because the Wildcats would have remained within striking distance.
2. Inability to get to the foul line. One of Villanova's major strengths this year has been free throw shooting accuracy. When it got to the line, Villanova did very well at the line on Saturday, making 12/16 of the line, an impressive 75%. But the Wildcats were unable to do what they often do - drive the lane effectively and draw fouls. North Carolina took far more shots at the line (22/37), and while the shooting percentage was poor (just 59.5%), the Tar Heels netted out a ten-point advantage.
3. Enormous difficulty, in scoring underneath the basket. Granted, given the disadvantage that Villanova faced in terms of height, this might have been problematic, under any circumstances. North Carolina not only had Tyler Hansbrough, but Roy Williams could bring in two quality players off the bench. They had in reserve, Ed Davis, 6/10 and the team leader in blocks - and also a 7-footer, Tyler Zeller, off the bench, if they had needed him (he played just 2 minutes, as opposed to Davis's 22 minutes). But with Villanova's three-point shooters missing often, North Carolina could continue to stay packed in the lane- and force Villanova's drivers to take bad shots in traffic.
4. On a lighter note- Jay Wright's pigs let us down. The pigs in Wright's aptly named "pig pocket", in the interior of his suit, were a good luck charm suggested by his daughter several weeks ago. The pigs had been 9-2, entering the game against North Carolina. But, regrettably, the pigs did not deliver at crunch time.
   

Go Wildcats!

There are two ways you can contact Villanova Viewpoint. One is by commenting on this blog. Comments are encouraged. Also, you can e-mail villanova.viewpoint@yahoo.com (Important note: This is a different e-mail address than before. Please use this new one.)

Reynolds, Many Villanova Wildcats Featured on 2009 "One Shining Moment" on CBS After North Carolina Won National Title over Michigan State

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

Thanks to their incredible Final Four run - the first for Villanova in 24 years and since the miraculous victory over Georgetown in 1985 - many Wildcats were featured, some multiple times, in CBS's montage of the tournament with the song One Shining Moment...

This is an article about the passing of the song's creator and the origins of the song One Shining Moment. It's very worthwhile reading, and I give it my highest recommendation. You can also just scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page to see the 2008 One Shining Moment YouTube clip - the author starts out with the link to 1987, since he's an Indiana fan, and he has 2008 all the way at the bottom of the page.

There are already several versions of the 2009 One Shining Moment on YouTube. If you have a fast computer, I'd recommend the high-definition version.

On the high-definition version, you have to be patient with it, as the person who uploaded it carefully recorded Greg Gumbel's entire signoff, including an advertisement for The Masters, so you won't see the tribute right away. If you want to skip ahead, and reach the tribute to the late Doug Towey, the individual who first had the idea of using it for CBS's Final Four coverage, and the video, I'd jump to the 0:40 mark of the 4:41.

On the regular-definition version of the 2009 One Shining Moment on YouTube, the uploader started the recording, immediately with Gumbel's tribute to Towey, so it lasts only 3:39.

Villanova Wildcats Appearances (High-Definition Time Counter in front of the picture)

1. 2:01 - Scottie Reynolds jumper against Pitt during the Elite Eight
   
2. 2:14-2:21 - The Shot - Reynolds drives for the game-winning basket to break tie with Pitt and send Villanova to the Final Four, plus the Wildcats pouring on to the court in complete euphoria, like a navy-clad torrential flood...
3. 2:24-2:25 - Corey Fisher tussling with a Pitt Panther for a rebound, along with Shane Clark
4. 3:10 - Clark and another Wildcat falling onto Duke's Jon Scheyer in the Sweet 16
5. 3:16 - Duke's Elliot Williams being fouled by Dwayne Anderson, while driving to the basket, with Dante Cunningham and Corey Stokes following...
6. 3:20 - Fisher outrunning Pitt Panther Levance Fields for a loose ball in transition
7. 3:45 - Reggie Redding embracing Reynolds and high-fiving Anderson, during Sweet 16 against Duke (it appears to be Kyle Singler in the corner)
8. 3:56 -4:07 - Cunningham behind victorious North Carolina Tar Heels greeting Ty Lawson, then Anderson playing defense, as Tyler Hansbrough hits a jumper, shot of Roy Williams, then Anderson and Reynolds pursuing on defense as Lawson goes to the basket off a steal...

Also, I'd like to highly recommend...

This is an article about the passing of the song's creator and the origins of the song One Shining Moment. It's very worthwhile reading, and I give it my highest recommendation. You can also just scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page to see the 2008 One Shining Moment YouTube clip - the author starts out with the link to 1987, since he's an Indiana fan, and he has 2008 all the way at the bottom of the page.

Go Wildcats!

There are two ways you can contact Villanova Viewpoint. One is by commenting on this blog. Comments are encouraged. Also, you can e-mail villanova.viewpoint@yahoo.com (Important note: This is a different e-mail address than before. Please use this new one.)

Villanova Featured Three Times by CBS's One Shining Moment in 2008; Reynolds, Wildcats to Appear Prominently in Tonight's Version, post -UNC/MSU

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

The Villanova Wildcats were featured in three different shots of CBS's One Shining Moment in 2008. In addition to that YouTube video, here's a great link:

This is an article about the passing of the song's creator and the origins of the song One Shining Moment. It's very worthwhile reading, and I give it my highest recommendation. You can also just scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page to see the 2008 One Shining Moment YouTube clip - the author starts out with the link to 1987, since he's an Indiana fan, and he has 2008 all the way at the bottom of the page.

Of the three Villanova appearances in the 2008 version-

1. At 0:20-21, It's hard to tell the exact number, but I believe it's Will Sheridan tipping off against Clemson in the first round of last year's tournament, in which #12 Villanova upset the #5 Tigers, while making an incredible comeback to do so... Corey "The Bayonne Bomber" Stokes is, ironically, in better view from that angle (that moniker coming courtesy of 6ABC, when Reggie Redding took the mike from reporter Jamie Apody and interviewed his teammates, while in Detroit for the Final Four earlier in the week...)
2. At 1:15-16, Dwayne Anderson gallantly defends a two-on-one break in Villanova's disastrous loss to Kansas, the eventual winner, in the Sweet 16... Russell Robinson lobs it to Brandon Rush, who dunks it...
   
3. At 2:23-29, Kansas inbounds the ball under the Villanova basket, with Stokes - again - guarding the inbounder. And the ball is inbounded on a lob to Darrell Arthur, who dunks on the set play over three Wildcats, with Scottie Reynolds nearly being crushed underneath him.
   

While it was great to last long enough in the tournament long enough to be featured three times, I think we'll all enjoy this year's version considerably more than last year's. So make sure you watch One Shining Moment this evening after the North Carolina/Michigan State game, as Villanova's thrilling, euphoric victory over Pittsburgh was clearly the best game of the tournament thus far, as radio commentator Whitey Rigsby said on Saturday.

Accordingly, it is almost certain that Scottie Reynolds will have a starring role in this year's One Shining Moment... one in which his prominence - and that of his Villanova teammates - will have a far more prominent role than in last year's One Shining Moment....


Go Wildcats!

There are two ways you can contact Villanova Viewpoint. One is by commenting on this blog. Comments are encouraged. Also, you can e-mail villanova.viewpoint@yahoo.com (Important note: This is a different e-mail address than before. Please use this new one.)

The Viewpoint from Opposition Lines: CarolinaMarch.com's Fine Analysis of North Carolina's Victory over Villanova, in Final Four

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

As we all ponder the end of yet another incredible season of Villanova basketball, I would like to call your attention the site CarolinaMarch.com - the graphics look awesome, and the content is first-rate as well...

The author, T.H., has some great substantive points. It's valuable to hear the writers from opponents' web sites, as they often have great insight that we don't notice because we see the Wildcats all of the time...

Here are two samples:

How Villanova Can Beat the Heels (of course, with the stroke of midnight last night, we Villanova fans should now consider it the counterfactual scenario of How Villanova Could Have Beaten the Heels...)

First, despite what you may think, they won't slow the game down. In their two wins over Syracuse, they ran right at the Orangemen's pace, outscoring them 102 to 85 and 89 to 86. They'll try to work the ball into Dante Cunningham a lot, and penetrate with their guards to pick up fouls and disrupt UNC's interior defense. Villanova won't attempt a Duke-level number of threes - it's the main difference between the two similarly built teams - but they'll need someone to get hot, typically Scottie Reynolds or Corey Stokes, the two players who take more threes than twos. They'll go for the steal a lot, again like Duke, but they're also prone to fouling. This won't have an effect on their depth, unless Cunningham hits the bench early and gives the UNC front line a chance to feast upon his smaller teammates, but they should probably avoid sending UNC to the line if they can hep it.

Offensive rebounding will be important for the Wildcats, and there are only two starters who contribute in that regard, Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson, the 6'6" wing player built in a Danny Green mold. Keeping UNC off the offensive boards on the other end will be critical, though, and the Wildcats typically do well as a team in that end. Of course that's in part because they bait their opponents into taking so many threes; if they can do that against Carolina by denying entry passes and otherwise frustrating them like Maryland and Wake Forest did, that should go a long way to getting Villanova the win.

His second post - UNC 83, Villanova 69 - is a superb recap of the game action itself:

The entire game, it seemed like there were two Carolina teams flickering in and out of focus, like two TV channels overlapping on the same band. There was the team from the previous tournament games, where Ty Lawson sliced through defenders at will, and Wayne Ellington dropped threes at will, going 5 for 7 behind the arc on his way 20 points. And then there was the other Carolina team, that popped their heads up earlier in the season. The one frustrated by Villanova's defense descending on the big men in the paint. The team that gave up an obscene number of offensive rebounds to a smaller team (19, and only that low because the Heels finally got it under control late), that went through scoring droughts and could never put an opponent away. I'd hoped to never see that team again this year.

Of course, there will be much more to come on Villanova's appearance in the Final Four, in subsequent posts, on Sunday, Monday, and throughout the week... so please check back...

Go Wildcats!

There are two ways you can contact Villanova Viewpoint. One is by commenting on this blog. Comments are encouraged. Also, you can e-mail villanova.viewpoint@yahoo.com (Important note: This is a different e-mail address than before. Please use this new one.)

Villanova's 572-Mile Journey To the Final Four Ends, As Wildcats Fall to Ellington, North Carolina, 83-69, at Detroit's Ford Field

To the Villanova Wildcats faithful-

Villanova's stunning NCAA tournament run ended on Saturday evening at cavernous Ford Field in Detroit, as the Wildcats fell to Wayne Ellington - of Episcopal Academy and Wynnewood, Pa. - and the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Final Four, 83-69.

It was the end to an amazing season, which culminated in Villanova advancing to the Final Four for just the fourth time in school history, and the first time since the miracle victory over Georgetown as a #8 seed in 1985, 24 years ago, on April Fool's Day...

It was the final game for seniors Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark, and Frank Tchuisi, who participated in more wins, than any other class in Villanova's storied 89-year basketball history...

Congratulations to head coach Jay Wright and his staff, the Wildcats, and all of those in the athletic department for making this year one to remember...

A more comprehensive recap will be coming... please check back...

Update:

Villanova was vanquished by a superior North Carolina team this evening. Obviously, the fact that North Carolina is the better team- on paper, in talent, and in won/lost record-

does not mean that the Wildcats couldn't have won tonight. They could have. (Any team - no matter what its seed - in the tournament field can beat any other team, on a neutral court.)

It just means that the Wildcats needed a near-flawless performance. And regrettably, that wasn't the case.

Before going through the numbers, one overall, subjective impression:

Particularly in the second half, as the minutes of the night slipped by-

The game had a very listless, uninspiring feel to it. Had I not been told that it was the Final Four, I would have likely concluded that it was a game in a holiday tournament, where there are few, if any fans, and teams from disparate conferences are playing each other in intersectional games.

Certainly, the fact that the game wasn't close had something to do with that effect on the viewer. But part of it was the decision to have a crowd of 70,000 +, for a basketball game. With the home favorite Spartans having gloriously ended UConn's season earlier, the green-and-white clad Michigan State fans began increasingly to go home, rather than cheer for Villanova's waning hopes of upsetting North Carolina and providing the Spartans with a slightly smoother path to another national title for Tom Izzo.

So for essentially the last eight minutes, the energy had been vacuumed out of Ford Field, and as play also became choppy, there was a desolate ambience about the game. With such a huge venue, if there aren't fans near the court to cheer, there is no noise (which couldn't have made CBS happy).

Nor was this impression solely due to the fact that it was a decisive North Carolina victory. I think that even had the score been reversed, the banal atmosphere, with the MSU and UConn fans having gone home, would have been similar. In summary, it just didn't have the exhilarating atmosphere that a Final Four contest should have...

We - with a great deal of justification - think of Final Fours as legendary games. Games in which storied programs trade highly contested buckets, with each side knowing that - even if the game isn't close - they are on the grandest stage that college basketball has to offer, and that the games will live on in the NCAA chronicles and the CBS highlight reels. It really didn't live up to that lofty standard.

(And of course, another contributing element, was the fact that the Pitt game was a very hard act to follow...)

So looking at numbers-

The Wildcats made just five of their 27 three-point attempts (18.5%), as well as shooting 26/79 from the floor (32.9%). These anemic numbers prompted CBS's Jim Nantz to remark - wittily - that

"they're certainly not shooting the way they did in the second half against Georgetown in 1985." (It's always worth noting - as Nantz immediately did, during the broadcast - that the Wildcats shot 78.6% from the floor against Georgetown overall, and 90% - nine out of ten - in the second half.)

This was the first Final Four game for Villanova, since that magical Monday, two dozen Aprils ago. But unfortunately, the hot shooting touch of Harold Jensen, Ed Pinckney, Dwayne McClain, Harold Pressley, Gary McLain, and Dwight Wilbur - did not maintain its mystical existence for a near-quarter century. (Although perhaps it might have lingered just long enough, to allow the shot from Scottie Reynolds to roll in, one week ago, against Pitt in the Elite Eight...)

Dante Cunningham had a superb game, ending his Villanova career neatly with a symmetrical dozen/dozen in points/rebounds. He shot 5/13 from the floor and committed three turnovers, but the Wildcats could have prevailed with Cunningham's dozen/dozen. The problem was that outside of Reggie Redding and Shane Clark, nobody had a good night from the floor (hence, the anemic numbers described earlier).

Redding - whom Nantz noted for the national audience, had played for St. Joseph's Prep in Philadelphia for former La Salle coach Speedy Morris - was named as Villanova's Chevrolet Player of the Game, finishing with 15 points on 5/9 shooting and four rebounds, including what was perhaps a particularly worthwhile feat, blocking a shot from Tyler Hansbrough (not easy for an off-guard to do).

In a statistical parallel to fellow senior Cunningham, Clark had half a dozen points, and half a dozen rebounds, while playing about half the time (18 minutes to Cunningham's 35). Rarely do the numbers work out so smoothly... and it was a fitting end to the magnificent run of these seniors, who played in four NCAA tournaments, two Elite Eights, three Sweet 16s, and a Final Four...

Reynolds led the Wildcats with 17 points, along with five assists and just one turnover, but it took him 18 shots to get six field goals, and he was just 3/11 from long-range distance.

Dwayne Anderson seemed to be everywhere, fighting for rebounds with abandon (he finished with a dozen) and also had three steals. But he was 2/12 from the floor, and missed all six of his three-point attempts.

Off the bench, Corey Fisher filled up the stat sheet, with 13 points and seven rebounds. But like the rest of the Wildcats, he struggled with accuracy - 5/19 shooting, 0-4 from beyond the arc. It often seemed that Fisher would just take the first shot he could, indiscriminately. Granted, Villanova trailed badly for almost the entire game, and instant offensive punch is Fisher's role. That having been said, it's very unusual to have a bench player have 19 field goal attempts to lead his team... Had some more of them rattled in, the Wildcats would have had a shot.

It didn't help that the other Corey's bombs didn't fall, either. Stokes played 20 minutes and was held scoreless, missing all three of his three-point attempts and collecting three rebounds.

Ironically, one factor that kept Villanova in the game, was something that they couldn't even affect - North Carolina's subpar performance at the foul line. The Tar Heels - even without any need for Villanova to foul at the end - went to the line 37 times, but made just 22 of them, a conversion rate of just 59.5%. (Both Cunningham and Anderson ultimately fouled out, providing a good opportunity to permit each of them to be given an ovation by the crowd.)

For Carolina's part, it has to be said that Ellington, more than any other Tar Heel, destroyed Villanova's hopes tonight. The wing player whom Jay Wright and his staff hoped at one time would become a Wildcat, ironically, ended the incredible run for the Main Liners.

Ellington finished with 20 points, on 7-14 shooting, including 5-7 from beyond the arc. Aside from the lethal perimeter shooting, it was the timing of the shots that was devastating. Ellington's high-arcing triples kept crashing down on Villanova with a thud. They always seemed to come when the Wildcats had started to build some momentum, repeatedly thwarting hopes of a sustained rally.

Much more to come, in subsequent posts, on Sunday, and throughout the week... so please check back...

Go Wildcats!

There are two ways you can contact Villanova Viewpoint. One is by commenting on this blog. Comments are encouraged. Also, you can e-mail villanova.viewpoint@yahoo.com (Important note: This is a different e-mail address than before. Please use this new one.)